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Indicator Review: The Trend is Your Friend, But...
By Dave M - 11/28/2016
With the S&P 500 having traded above its short-term moving average for 15 days now, the trend is clearly a friend to the bulls. However, the action in the bond market...

Indicator Review: Neutral But Hopeful
By Dave M - 11/21/2016
The sloppy period leading up to the election took its toll on some of the big-picture models. However, the spirited post-election rebound has caused the trend and momentum indicators to turn green. And then when you mix in...

Indicator Review: What A Difference A Week Makes
By Dave M - 11/14/2016
Last week, we were talking about the fact that stocks were in a clearly defined downtrend and looking at how low the market indices could go. But after the surprise election result...

Bond Summary: Of Tightening, Tapering and Trump
By Dave M - 11/11/2016
While stocks are getting all the attention lately, the action in the bond market is causing experts to fret that a sea change is occurring. Instead of a tailwind for bond investors, the fear is...

Don't Forget About The Bonds
By Dave M - 11/10/2016
While traders fell all over themselves getting into biotech, pharma, healthcare, infrastructure, defense, and infrastructure stocks, another part of the "Trump Trade" may have escaped your attention...

By Dave M - 11/9/2016
In what can only be described as an anti-establishment vote and the biggest U.S. election surprise in a generation, Donald Trump has won the White House. And since markets HATE surprise (and uncertainty)...

Sometimes The Game Is Just Plain Hard
By Dave M - 11/8/2016
While it has been a frustrating time to be in the markets, it is important to remember that nobody said investing was easy. And with markets moving sideways to down...

Indicator Review: Time To Get Fooled Again?
By Dave M - 11/7/2016
To be sure, our models have weakened over the two months. But given that weakness in the trend and momentum indicators haven't been a harbinger of bad things to come for several years now...

Four Reasons Buyers Are On Strike
By Dave M - 11/4/2016
If you are left scratching your head as to why the bears are suddenly in complete control of the game again, you aren't alone. So, here are four reasons that are creating some angst among traders...

Just Another Algo-Induced Freak-out, Or...
By Dave M - 11/2/2016
Yesterday's sudden dance to the downside appeared to be triggered by a spike in the so-called "fear index" tied to worries about a BREXIT-style surprise in the U.S. Presidential election...

There Are Three Kinds of Lies...
By Dave M - 10/27/2016
It is said that there are three kinds of lies in this business... Lies, damned lies, and statistics! Nowhere is this more evident than when a manager tries to prove that he/she is right and the market is wrong...

My Best Guess Is...
By Dave M - 10/26/2016
To be sure, it has been a long slog in the stock market for the past three months. My best guess as to the reason behind what can only be called sloppy action is...

Should We Be Worried About the Economy?
By Dave M - 10/25/2016
On Monday, I reported that one of our Economic Models had fallen into the moderately negative zone, which prompted the question, shouldn't we be worried about the economy?

Indicator Review: Stay The Course
By Dave M - 10/24/2016
Stocks remain mired in a sloppy downtrend. The market is oversold. The earnings parade hasn't been too bad. The Fed will likely raise rates in December. And the indicators tell us to...

Par For The Course
By Dave M - 10/21/2016
While it is tough to keep the bigger-picture trends in mind when the market has been frustrating for this long, it is important to remember that what we're seeing is...

Here Is Something You CAN Worry About...
By Dave M - 10/20/2016
While many of the so-called worries in the stock market can be ignored, I've spotted an issue in the "safety" stocks that investors may want to know about...

Investors Should Stop Worrying About...
By Dave M - 10/19/2016
Although there seems to be plenty of issues for investors to fret about these days, you can probably stop worrying about one of the bigger concerns being voiced in the press...

Uncertainty Seems To Be The Key
By Dave M - 10/18/2016
with the focal points of the market seeming to shift on a daily basis, it is important to keep up with all the issues traders are dealing with right now...

Indicator Review: It's Getting Tense Out There, But...
By Dave M - 10/17/2016
There can be little argument that the action in the stock market has been more than a little sloppy lately and our major indicators reflect this. However...

The Latest Bright, Shiny Object Is...
By Dave M - 10/14/2016
The current stock market has a serious case of A.D.D. going. One minute the focus is squarely on the dollar and rates, and the next, well...

All About the Buck
By Dave M - 10/13/2016
The primary goal of my morning market missive is to identify the key drivers of the markets. Right now there can be little argument that the action in the U.S. dollar is driving stock prices...

Triple Whammy Causing Consternation
By Dave M - 10/12/2016
Stocks got smacked around pretty good on Tuesday as a triple whammy of negative news caused traders and their computers to suddenly rethink their outlook...

Is It Time To Turn That Frown Upside Down?
By Dave M - 10/11/2016
Stocks have been moving sideways in a frustrating manner since the middle of July. However, there might be a reason or two to turn that frown upside down when looking ahead...

Indicator Review: Can You Say Neutral?
By Dave M - 10/10/2016
After a review of our key market indicators/models, it becomes clear that stocks remain mired in a neutral environment - aka a consolidation phase...

Why Tactical Isn't Working - Part VII (The Solutions)
By Dave M - 10/4/2016
After exploring the many reasons why tactical management strategies have failed to live up to expectations, today we will explore some possible solutions to the dilemma...

Indicator Review: Dazed and Confused
By Dave M - 10/3/2016
As we enter the fourth quarter of 2016, a review of the indicator boards shows there to be a fair amount of conflicting messages among the various indicators...

All About Deutsche
By Dave M - 9/30/2016
On this last day of the third quarter, the focus of the markets has turned to the crisis of confidence that is happening at Deutsche Bank and the potential for...

Why Tactical Isn't Working - Part VI (The Rise of the Machines)
By Dave M - 9/21/2016
Today, we will explore the impact of computerized algorithmic trading is having on how markets act on an intraday basis... aka, what I call, "the rise of the machines."

Why Tactical Isn't Working - Part V (The Numbers)
By Dave M - 9/20/2016
Some folks have questioned what I mean when suggesting that tactical/technical strategies have struggled recently. So, today, we'll take a look at some numbers that make the point pretty clear...

Since It's Still September...
By Dave M - 9/19/2016
Before we let the blinking screens take over our lives again, let's step back and start the week with a review of the state of the market and our objective major market indicators...

Why Tactical Isn't Working - Part IV (QE-Infinity and Beyond!)
By Dave M - 9/16/2016
With the markets (a) stuck in what I'll call price discovery mode in relation to the idea that we are seeing the beginning of the end of the QE Era, jI'll continuing our series on why tactical/technical strategies have not fared well...

Why Tactical Isn't Working - Part III (Everybody's Doin' It)
By Dave M - 9/15/2016
With market participants continuing to ponder the idea of the QE era coming to a close, this morning I'll continue to explore why tactical strategies have struggled...

All About The Bonds
By Dave M - 9/14/2016
The big macro fear in the markets at this point in time - and the reason for all the volatility - is that we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the QE era...

No New Message From Brainard
By Dave M - 9/13/2016
Stocks dove on Friday on fears that the Fed was trying to send a message to the market. Traders believed that Fed Governor Lael Brainard was being cued up to send a message to the markets...

Freak-out Mode Is Back
By Dave M - 9/12/2016
On Friday, investors were reminded of why September is known for volatility. The computers were cued up and waiting for a reason - any reason - to sell stocks...

Why Tactical Strategies Aren't Working - Part II
By Dave M - 9/9/2016
Yesterday, I began a series of posts that I have been meaning to write for quite some time. The topic at hand is why so many technical stock market indicators and, in turn, so many tactical investing strategies have struggled...

Why Tactical Strategies Aren't Working - Part I
By Dave M - 9/8/2016
Investors employing what are called "Tactical Strategies" have been rather disappointed in recent years as many tried and true methods simple aren't working lately. Here's a look at why...

The Data Has Been Disappointing, But...
By Dave M - 9/7/2016
If you find yourself looking for something to worry about in the stock market, the recent string of economic data just might fit the bill. The bottom line is the data has been weak...

Are The Bears Finally Ready?
By Dave M - 9/6/2016
Although stocks remain overbought and both sentiment and seasonality are not positive at the present time, the bottom line is the bears have been unable to get anything going...

A Game Changer?
By Dave M - 9/2/2016
Today's Nonfarm Payrolls Report, when coupled with yesterday's manufacturing data may have been a game changer for anyone expecting Janet Yellen to...

Global Economy Not Crumbling From BREXIT Just Yet
By Dave M - 9/1/2016
With just a couple more days left in Wall Street's vacation season and the Big Kahuna of economic reports on tap for tomorrow, it would be easy to dismiss today's early news...

The Next Bubble Is In...
By Dave M - 8/31/2016
I've been accused recently of being overly optimistic on stocks. So, this morning I'm going to walk in the other guy's shoes and look at what could be the next big problem...

The Cycles Say It Is Time For A...
By Dave M - 8/30/2016
While there is clearly no such thing as a perfect indicator for the stock market, seasonal patterns can often provide a very strong hint as to what may come next in Ms. Market's game...

The Action is Getting Sloppy...
By Dave M - 8/29/2016
The bad news is stocks have entered a downtrend from a short-term perspective and seasonality now becomes a headwind for the bulls to deal with. The good news is...

Another Voice Heard From, Is The Market Listening?
By Dave M - 8/25/2016
With the Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole kicking off today, the focal point of the markets remains on monetary policy on this very quiet late-summer morning. But it is important to note that...

Traders Watching Oil, Copper and the Fed
By Dave M - 8/24/2016
Traders are watching oil and commodities in the early going today as well as sifting through the commentary on what to expect from Janet Yellen's speech

Yellen's Task Is To...
By Dave M - 8/23/2016
With summer vacation season winding down and the Fed's symposium getting underway in Jackson Hole, it is safe to say that traders are waiting to hear what Janet Yellen has to say on Friday...

Stocks Have Stalled and Cycles Pointing Down, But...
By Dave M - 8/22/2016
Since it's Monday, let's get right to our weekly review of the state of the market and our major market indicators/models. This week, it is clear that market momentum has stalled. However...

Trying to Put Things In Perspective
By Dave M - 8/19/2016
I recently wrote about the importance of identifying one's time frame when trying to win in Ms. Market's game. As I opined, trying to use a long-term approach to a short-term trend is...

Takeaway From Fed Minutes: It's Time To...
By Dave M - 8/18/2016
To be sure, one of the key drivers to the global markets continues to be the state of central bank policies. Investors around the world have learned that the old cliche, "Don't fight the Fed"...

Which Game Are You Playing?
By Dave M - 8/17/2016
When playing the stock market game, it is critical to understand the time-frame you are attempting to "win" at. For example, the big boys with their expensive co-located computers...

The Train is Leaving the Station
By Dave M - 8/16/2016
While the uber-bears continue to pound the table about the risk of the next great disaster in the stock market, I'm reminded that two of the most famous cliches on Wall Street include...

The Indicators Are Saying It's Time For...
By Dave M - 8/15/2016
We like to start each week with a thorough review of the major stock market models and indicators. This week, the message from the indicators seems to be that it's time for....

The Calendar Versus The Trend
By Dave M - 8/10/2016
There is no denying that stocks have been on a roll lately. And analysts have even declared this to be a new bull market trend. However, looking at the calendar we must note that...

Is Sideways The New Down?
By Dave M - 8/9/2016
It is a given that Ms. Market's mood can change at a moment's notice (or the drop of an algo). But for the time being, it appears that sideways just might be the new down...

Sometimes Things Make Sense
By Dave M - 8/8/2016
Every once in a great while, the stock market game actually makes some sense. And from my seat, this just might be one of those times. In short, the recent Jobs Report tells us...

Jobs Report Surprises to the Upside
By Dave M - 8/5/2016
All eyes are on the labor department this morning as the "big kahuna" of economic data - aka the Jobs Report - showed that the economy created a big batch of new jobs in the month of July...

Carney Drags Out The Bazooka
By Dave M - 8/4/2016
The big news on this fine Thursday morning is the Bank of England's decision to "fire the bazooka" in the hopes of cushioning the fall in the British economy. Mark Carney's bank announced this morning...

The Reasons Stocks Are Bottled Up
By Dave M - 8/2/2016
The major stock market indices have been moving sideways in an exceptionally tight range for nearly three weeks now. At issue here is the fact that there are new reasons to fret as well as...

Crude's Move Becoming Rude Again
By Dave M - 7/29/2016
Don't look now, but there's trouble in the energy patch again as crude oil is back in what the media affectionately refers to as "bear market territory." The question, of course, is...

Two More Indicators Turn Green
By Dave M - 7/28/2016
While the major indices have been enjoying a raucous ride lately, two of my favorite, long-term, big-picture indicators have been lagging. The good news is...

Waiting on the Fed
By Dave M - 7/27/2016
With stocks having become overbought during the recent run and meetings of both the FOMC and BOJ this week, it isn't terribly surprising to see stocks moving sideways here...

Another Reason To Favor The Bulls
By Dave M - 7/26/2016
It appears that traders have hit the pause button on the recent rally phase. And given the long list of issues to deal with including the resumption of oil's decline, the Fed meeting, the BOJ's waffling, etc...

The Base Level Assumption Should Now Be...
By Dave M - 7/25/2016
Last week, the long-term breakout was confirmed and we learned that a cyclical bull market had officially begun. Thus, the base level assumption investors need to have going forward is...

BREXIT is Indeed Hurting UK Economy, But...
By Dave M - 7/22/2016
Data out of England shows that the BREXIT vote is clearly having an immediate impact on the economic picture in the U.K. However, from the market's perspective, this is being viewed as a signal that...

It's a New Bull Market
By Rich - 7/20/2016
Don't look now fans, but it looks like we've got a new bull market on our hands. While there are still lots of reasons to fret, the objective indicators suggest that the stock market is about to get fun again...

Time To Take a Break, But...
By Dave M - 7/19/2016
After making new highs in five of the last six sessions, many analysts believe that it is time for the bulls to take a break. However, once the obligatory test of the breakout zone is finished, we feel...

A Good Overbought Condition
By Dave M - 7/18/2016
The bulls have put on quite a show of late, leaving the bear camp pounding the table that stocks are due to "go the other way" very soon. However, it is important to understand that sometimes...

Time to Pick a Side?
By Dave M - 7/15/2016
There are two clear camps regarding the outlook for the stock market at the current time. On one side of the aisle there are the bulls, who contend that the recent breakout is...

Still Skeptical of the Rally?
By Dave M - 7/14/2016
If you find yourself skeptical about the sustainability of the current run for the roses in the stock market, you aren't alone. Frankly, one can't be blamed for expecting the current run for the roses to...

The Good/Bad News of New Highs
By Dave M - 7/13/2016
First the good news. The DJIA, S&P 500, and Mid-cap indices all closed at new all-time highs yesterday. In addition, most of our trend and internal momentum indicators are green...

Time To Uncork the Champagne?
By Rich - 7/12/2016
It took more than 420 trading days to make it happen, but the S&P 500 finally closed at a fresh all-time high yesterday. The question of the day is, will it hold?

Is a Breakout In the Cards?
By Rich - 7/11/2016
With the economic picture having brightened a bit after the latest jobs report, the question of the day is if the bulls will finally be able to breakout of the longstanding trading range...

And We're Back...
By Dave M - 7/1/2016
If you find yourself shaking your head over the action of the stock and bond markets over the past six sessions, you are not alone. Talk about schizophrenic!

Reasons For The Rebound
By Dave M - 6/29/2016
After two days of selling and an awful lot of talk about the end of the economic world as we know it, stocks are bouncing higher. We see a handful of reasons for the sigh of relief...

BREXIT Means Yet Another Trip Through the Range
By Dave M - 6/27/2016
The prognostications for the outcome of the BREXIT vote are coming fast and furious right now, with just about everybody on the plane offering up an opinion, However, for the stock market, Friday's vote likely means...

The Word Of The Day Is...
By Rich - 6/24/2016
For weeks now, the question of the day has been whether or not the U.K. would vote for a "BREXIT" or to "BREMAIN." This morning the word of the day would seem to be...

The Waiting Game
By Dave M - 6/22/2016
The current sideways action suggests that stocks are stuck playing the waiting game. Unless you live in a cave, you likely know that traders are waiting on....

Muddling Along Due To...
By Dave M - 6/20/2016
While traders remain focused on the question of a "Brexit," the market itself continues to "muddle along" due to the multitude of uncertainties that remain...

The Current Strategy Is To...
By Dave M - 6/13/2016
After a brief break above the 2100 level, it appears that the "breakout fake-out" is back in play. The current worries include both the...

Here We Go Again...
By Dave M - 6/8/2016
Well, it's that time again. Time for the bears to remind us of why stocks absolutely, positively cannot go any higher from here. However, I find myself...

The Evidence Suggests...
By Dave M - 6/6/2016
If it's Monday, it's time to take a step back and do an objective review of the state of the stock market. This week, we find that the indicators may be a bit...

Has The Summer Rally Begun?
By Dave M - 5/25/2016
With New Home Sales surprising to the upside this week, analysts believe the Fed may be more likely to raise rates sooner rather than later, which is especially good for...

Bears Still In Control, But...
By Dave M - 5/23/2016
There is no denying that stocks are currently trending lower. However, there is some good news to be found in the areas of...

The Bears Have a Shot...
By Dave M - 5/16/2016
Stocks have now fallen for three straight weeks and the indicators have clearly weakened. As such, our friends in fur appear to have a shot here to...

Some Weakness Creeping In...
By Dave M - 5/9/2016
Although the recent selling on Wall Street has not been intense, there can be little argument that there is some weakness creeping into our indicators...

The Upside Is Limited, Right?
By Dave M - 5/5/2016
The vast majority of Wall Street analysts agree; the upside potential for the stock market in the United States is limited due to a variety of factors...

Although The Action Has Gotten Sloppy...
By Dave M - 5/2/2016
Don't look now fans but the "Sell in May" season is upon us. And while this may partially explain why the action has gotten sloppy lately, our models tell us...

The Truly Contrarian View Currently Is...
By Rich - 4/28/2016
The general consensus thinking is that stock market returns for the coming year will come in well below historical norms. So, the true contrarian view...

The Weight of the Evidence Remains Positive
By Dave M - 4/25/2016
In reviewing the key market indicators and models, we find that the weight of the evidence continues to be positive across the board...

Reasons to Give the Bulls the Benefit of Doubt
By Dave M - 4/20/2016
Although stocks have suffered two corrections since last August and the way forward appears murky to many, there are reasons to be optimistic...

The Weight of the Evidence Suggests...
By Dave M - 4/18/2016
Our weekly review of the key stock market indicators suggests that the weight of the evidence would seem to continue to support the bulls. However...

After Review, The Message Is...
By Dave M - 4/13/2016
Let's take a look at the keys to the market from the short-, intermediate-, and longer-term perspectives in order to determine the focal points...

Give The Bulls The Benefit Of Doubt
By Rich - 4/11/2016
Earnings are expected to be weak. The economic growth rate is heading in the wrong direction. However, the major indicators suggest that we should...

Is It Time To Worry Again?
By Dave M - 4/8/2016
The laundry list of worries in the stock market (which we will review this morning) is long. However, it should be noted that after a big run in stocks, the current action is...

Longer-Term Investors Should Be...
By Dave M - 4/5/2016
While the current market is not exactly an all-systems-go environment, a review of our important indicators tells us that longer-term investors should be siding with the...

Still Riding the Range
By Dave M - 4/4/2016
The good news is the bear market has ended. The bad news is stocks remain stuck in a trading range that has been in place for a year and a half...

Yellen Waves Yellow Flag, Stocks Respond
By Rich - 3/30/2016
For some time now, when oil makes a move, stocks follow suit. However, it is important to remember that there is one thing that trumps all in the stock market game - central bankers.

Is It Still All About Oil?
By Dave M - 3/21/2016
To be sure, the stock market is in much better shape than it was 25 sessions ago. However, the question of the day is the game is still all about oil?

The Bulls Are Arguing That It's Over...
By Dave M - 3/14/2016
Although it took a while to sink in, traders celebrated Super Mario's moves on Friday. And with stocks now enjoying a strong run, the bulls suggest that the bear is over...

Did Super Mario Succeed?
By Dave M - 3/11/2016
For many years, QE has been the elixir that has been able to cure all market ills. So, when Mario Draghi delivered the good this time, most expected stocks to celebrate...

The Current Line In The Sand Is...
By Dave M - 3/9/2016
While stocks have bounced in an impression manner of late, the question of the day remains the same. In short, both sides are wondering if the recent run for the roses ended Monday

A Look At The Big Picture Indicators
By Dave M - 3/8/2016
With prices having bounced convincingly off the recent lows, the question of the day is if the move is for real. Thus, we turn to our big picture market models for clues...

The Indicators Tell Us (Part I)
By Dave M - 3/7/2016
With the S&P 500 having moved higher for a third consecutive week and now sitting 9.3% above the February 11, 2016 low, it is fairly easy to argue that the worst of the bear market may be...

Let's Look At The Economy...
By Rich - 3/4/2016
It's all about jobs today. And in keeping with this theme, we review some of the important data on the economy that has been released this week...

Has FOMO Returned?
By Rich - 3/2/2016
With traders moving to a risk-on mode at the present time, it appears that a new fear may be developing - the fear of missing out...

Near Term Action is Key
By Rich - 3/1/2016
It appears that the near-term action in the stock market will hold the key to the next meaningful move - and what's interesting here is...

Should We Be Skeptical Here?
By Dave M - 2/29/2016
With stocks having enjoyed two weeks of strong gains and on the cusp of the first winning month of 2016, it is natural to be looking for the rally to continue...

What's Next After the Bounce?
By Rich - 2/22/2016
With the stock market enjoying the much anticipated oversold bounce, the question of the day becomes, where do we go from here?

The Bad News: It's a Bear Market. The Good News Is...
By Rich - 2/15/2016
The bad news is the DJIA is now officially considered to be in a bear market. The good news is that if history is our guide, this bear market is likely to be...

All About Jobs (And "FANGs" and...)
By Rich - 2/8/2016
Although the focal point of the stock market remains oil, a breakdown in tech, and something being referred to as divergent monetary policy is also getting a lot of attention...

Are You Worried About The Economy Yet?
By Rich - 2/5/2016
With recent economic data coming in on the punk side, analysts are beginning to fret about the state of the U.S. economy. However, the data shows that stocks...

Understanding the Insanity
By Rich - 2/4/2016
Stocks took investors on another wild ride Wednesday as the Dow moved from -190 to +180 during the session. Thus it is important to understand the cause of the volatility...

Is It Time To Worry About The Banks?
By Rich - 2/3/2016
Although all eyes remain focused on the price of oil, the recent action in the major banks may be sending a message that investors may want to listen to...

Let's Talk This Out...
By Rich - 2/2/2016
Stocks appear to be at a crossroads here as the bulls argue the bottom is in and there is more upside ahead while the bears contend the bounce has run its course. So...

Free Money Trumps Fear Every Time
By Dave M - 2/1/2016
Stocks rallied furiously on Friday as global central bankers got back into the game. And if investors have learned anything since 2009 it is that...

Investors May Be Asking The Wrong Question
By Rich - 1/26/2016
With the stock market clearly struggling to find its footing, many investors are asking if we are entering a bear market. However, the better question to be asking right now is...

So Bad That It's Good?
By Rich - 1/25/2016
Investor sentiment has become decidedly negative in 2016. However, in studying the mood of the markets over time, things may be getting so bad that it's actually a good thing...

Watching The Action (And What To Do Now)
By Rich - 1/22/2016
The bulls definitely have the "table set" for them at the present time. However, on Thursday our heroes in horns didn't do much with their opportunity. But Friday may be another story...

Look For A Bounce, But Beware Of...
By Rich - 1/21/2016
With stocks in an extremely oversold condition and sentiment becoming exceptionally negative, traders are looking for the usual rebound. However, from a big-picture point of view, the concerns are...

The Message Is...
By Rich - 1/20/2016
Tuesday's stock market action provided insight into what is driving the action on a short-term basis. In short, the message is...

If It's A Bear...
By Dave M - 1/19/2016
With the S&P down more than 11% from the most recent high, the question of the day seems to be whether or not stocks have entered a bear market. The good news is...

Is The Game Changing?
By Dave M - 1/15/2016
Don't look now, but the game in the U.S. stock market may be changing. In short, the long string of v-bottoms appears to have ended and our furry may be back in business...

China Pulling Out All The Stops And...
By Dave M - 1/13/2016
With all eyes on the state of the yuan, Chinese officials appear to be pulling out all the stops. And then on the oil front, it looks like it is time for...

Keeping an Eye on China and...
By Dave M - 1/12/2016
Now that we all know that the focal points of this market include China, the yuan, and oil, it is a good idea to keep an eye on the current goings on...

By Now You Probably Know...
By Dave M - 1/11/2016
By now, you probably know that the first week of 2016 was the worst on record and that this market is all about China and yuan. However, you may not know...

A Reprieve, But For How Long?
By Dave M - 1/8/2016
With the Chinese pulling out all the intervention stops and the U.S. jobs report coming in better than expected, it may be time to cue the rebound on Wall Street...

We Need To Understand The China Situation
By Dave M - 1/7/2016
With markets diving around the globe in response to the difficulties in China, it is important to understand what is driving the action in the world's second biggest economy...

Three More Reasons to Worry
By Dave M - 1/6/2016
Things are pretty rocky in the markets so far in 2016. It appears that there are three primary sources of worry at this point in time...

Understanding What The Game Is About Here
By Dave M - 1/5/2016
With stocks succumbing to some trading hysterics on the first trading day of the New Year, it is important to understand what the action is all about...

Putting 2015 in Perspective and Looking Ahead
By Dave M - 1/4/2016
Before we move on to what looks to be a bumpy ride in 2016, we thought it would be a good idea to put the year that was in perspective...

Don't Be Fooled, All Is Not Right With This Market
By Dave M - 12/21/2015
While traders could certainly push stock prices back up into the black before New Year's Eve arrives, make no mistake about; all is not right with this market...

Let's Be Careful Out There...
By Dave M - 12/16/2015
While stocks appear to be rebounding from the latest round of selling, a review of the indicators suggests that there are reasons to be careful out there...

The Times (Err, Indicators) They Are A Changin'
By Dave M - 12/15/2015
Although stocks appear to have resumed a sideways trading pattern, our indicators suggest that the underlying strength of the market is weakening...

It's About Oil, And Junk, And...
By Dave M - 12/14/2015
While traders have a lot to focus on at the present time, the keys to the market appear to be what his happening in oil and the junk bond markets...

Why We're Back To Sideways
By Dave M - 12/7/2015
After the August freakout and the QE-induced recovery in October, it appears that the U.S. stock market is back to sideways. Here's our take on why sideways appears to be the new normal...

Wait, That's Not Supposed To Happen...
By Dave M - 12/4/2015
Thursday's market action got wild and wooly as stocks, bonds, and the dollar all got hit hard at the same time. And the bottom line is that's not supposed to happen...

Back To The Bankers...
By Dave M - 12/3/2015
Given that the shootings in California do not appear to be an ISIS-related terror attack, traders are turning their attention back to the central bankers of the world. Today we have learned...

The Indicators Tell Us To...
By Dave M - 11/29/2015
Now that the Thanksgiving gatherings are over, it's time to buckle down and refocus on what is happening in the stock market. A thorough review of the indicators tells us to...

A Market That Doesn't Go Down On Bad News...
By Dave M - 11/25/2015
The near-term action in stocks is hard to figure, to say the least. However, as the saying goes, a market that doesn't go down on bad news is likely...

Macro Musings and The Big Bond Bear
By Dave M - 11/24/2015
Analysts have been calling for a mega bear market to begin in bonds for quite some time now. However, in looking at the macro picture, the bond bears may continue to be frustrated...

Even The Indicators Are Confused
By Dave M - 11/18/2015
With the market still in an up-one-minute, down-the-next mode, I look to my key indicators to help me figure out what the heck is going on. However, at this stage of the game, even the indicators are confused!

Did Stocks Rally For the Wrong Reason?
By Dave M - 11/17/2015
After the horrific events in France, most investors were likely surprised to see stocks rally on Monday. Here's one theory on why traders skipped the "risk off" trade and started buying...

The Very Best Way To Invest In This Market Is...
By Dave M - 11/16/2015
With the end of the year fast approaching and stocks having gone nowhere in 2015, investors will likely be reevaluating their approach to their portfolios. I've learned that the best way to approach this game is...

Once Again, It's Time To...
By Dave M - 11/13/2015
Well, here we go again. Just when you thought the bulls had rediscovered their long lost mojo and were ready to embark on a new leg higher, the worry returns...

Back To The Valuation Argument
By Dave M - 11/12/2015
In speaking with financial advisors this week, the subject of stock market valuations came up frequently. The issue seems to be whether or not to take the current levels of interest rates and/or inflation into account...

Moving Toward The Launch Pad
By Dave M - 11/9/2015
Friday's jobs report appears to have given Ms. Yellen and her merry band of central bankers the cover they need to move toward "liftoff" at the December FOMC meeting. What this means for the markets is...

Key Question: Are Stocks Being Efficient or Noisy?
By Dave M - 11/5/2015
One of the key questions investors must ask themselves is whether or not the market is being efficient in its movements. This morning we look at three ways to determine the answer...

Is It Time To Go The Other Way (Again)?
By Dave M - 11/4/2015
What we've learned over the past year and a half is that the trends in the stock market don't tend to stick around for long and that Ms. Market tends to changer her mind with regularity. So...

Good News/Bad News From the Volume Front
By Dave M - 11/2/2015
The bulls have certainly been on a roll for the past month. This is when it is important to see internal momentum indicators confirm the move. However, the message from the volume indicators is mixed...

Understanding How Ms. Market Thinks
By Dave M - 10/30/2015
A great many investors assume that the stock market reacts to what is happening in the economy. While this may be true at turning points, it is not really the case from a longer-term perspective...

If You Are Scratching Your Head...
By Dave M - 10/29/2015
If you find yourself scratching your head to understand the stock market's recent joyride to the upside, there are a few things to know...

Some Very Scary Pictures
By Dave M - 10/27/2015
While Halloween is still a few days away, there are some scary pictures starting to crop up these days. Investors will want to pay particular attention to...

Mood Swing
By Dave M - 10/26/2015
The mood on Wall Street has swung from pessimism to optimism over the past week and a half. The key is to understand that if the ECB is going to keep QE going and...

Scratch That. It's Still All About...
By Dave M - 10/16/2015
The general consensus is that traders are focused on earnings at the present time. However, the most recent action suggests that the game is really still all about...

Sifting Through The Tea Leaves
By Dave M - 10/15/2015
While earnings season is starting to roll, traders are currently focused on other issues including the macro picture and the intentions of central bankers around the globe...

The Catalyst Is Clear, The Direction Is Not
By Dave M - 10/14/2015
After a furious rally off the lows, traders are looking to earnings to be the catalyst to the next move in the stock market. The question, of course, is which way the move will go...

False Alarm
By Dave M - 10/12/2015
When my "desert island" indicator speaks, I have learned that it pays to listen. So, withe the latest sell signal being reversed, it is time to...

Don't Look Now, But There May Be Reasons For Optimism
By Dave M - 10/8/2015
Although it is very easy to be negative on the outlook for the stock market, the bulls remind us that there just may be some reasons to be optimistic...

If I Were Stranded On A Deserted Island...
By Dave M - 10/7/2015
My favorite long-term indicator - the one I'd use if stranded on a deserted island - is telling us that we need to either sit up and take notice here or...

Crash Playbook Continues To Play Out
By Dave M - 10/6/2015
While some of the past waterfall decline patterns may no longer be valid, Paul Schatz suggests two are still in play at this time...

Are The Indicators Still Reliable?
By Dave M - 9/28/2015
The question of the day may not be whether or not the correction is over but if time-tested market indicators remain useful in this computer-driven market...

Did Correction Fix the Valuation Problems?
By Dave M - 9/21/2015
After falling more than 11% in August, the question is if the recent correction "fixed" the valuation issues that have kept the market's upside bottled up this year...

Fed Inaction Puts Uncertainty Back In Play
By Dave M - 9/18/2015
While Yellen & Co. likely meant well by not raising rates at yesterday's FOMC meeting, the inaction has put uncertainty back in the mix and created a stir in global markets...

Fed Decision Day is Finally Upon Us
By Dave M - 9/17/2015
After what feels like an eternity filled with conjecture, polls, and discussion, investors will finally get the decision from the FOMC today. However, the real question is...

Traders: It's Time To Place Your Bets
By Dave M - 9/14/2015
With stock indices at a crossroads on the charts and the Fed on deck this week, it is time for traders using a subjective approach to place their bets on what comes next...

Has Tepper Got It Right Again?
By Dave M - 9/11/2015
In addition to making billions for investors at his hedge fund, David Tepper has built a reputation of making accurate calls on the macro view of the market. Tepper currently says...

Big Decisions Need To Be Made
By Dave M - 9/10/2015
With volatility continuing to run high, it appears that the market is waiting on some big decisions to be made from traders, the Fed, and the Chinese...

How Much Have Things Changed?
By Dave M - 9/9/2015
It is obvious that the character of the U.S. stock market has changed since the middle of August. The question is how much change has taken place...

The First Question: Is It Over?
By Dave M - 9/8/2015
There are two really big, important questions at this time. The first refers to the near-term action in the market as traders try to determine if the current dance to the downside is over. The second...

Post Crash Behavior and What To Expect Next
By Dave M - 9/3/2015
While it may be hard to believe, the current market behavior is eerily similar to that of prior market crashes. So, based on past behavior...

Is "The Big One" Upon Us?
By Dave M - 8/24/2015
This is the type of emotional market where it is best to have risk management strategies in place before the panic begins...

Let's Review Part II - Is There Value In Them Thar Hills?
By Dave M - 8/18/2015
Given that the current bull market is growing older by the day, the question is if there is still value to be found. Apparently Warren Buffett thinks so...

Let's Review - Part I
By Dave M - 8/17/2015
With the market stuck in a trading range and vacation season in full swing, this is a good time to review the drivers of the market in the short-, intermediate-, and long-term time frames...

Can You Say Neutral?
By Dave M - 8/14/2015
When reviewing the weight of the evidence from a host of market models, the word best used to describe the environment is...

Rebound in Oil Patch Saves The Day - But Can It Last?
By Dave M - 8/13/2015
Things got very ugly very early on Wednesday. However, a rebound in the oil patch turned things around in dramatic fashion. The question, of course...

Recovery, What Recovery?
By Dave M - 8/11/2015
The financial press attributed Monday's joyride to the upside to a "recovery" in oil prices. But in looking at the charts, the question becomes...

Divergent Behavior
By Dave M - 8/10/2015
The recent behavior of the stock market diverges significantly from what our historical cycle work suggests should be happening...

Building An Unemotional Market Model
By Dave M - 8/5/2015
With stocks still stuck in a range, today we'll look at how to build an emotional "state of the markets" model to help guide exposure to market risk...

A Cold, Hard Look At The State of the Indicators
By Dave M - 8/3/2015
With the market remaining in a protracted sideways range, we thought it would be a good time to take a hard look at the state of the key market indicators...

Is Sideways the New Normal?
By Dave M - 7/31/2015
With stocks having been stuck in a trading range for many moons now, the question of the day is if sideways markets are the new normal...

Some "S" Words to Consider
By Dave M - 7/30/2015
Parsing the verbiage used by the Fed has always been an interesting game. Yesterday's FOMC statement included some new words that are attracting a fair amount of attention...

The More Things Change, The More They...
By Dave M - 7/29/2015
In the last few weeks, there have been plenty of issues for traders to focus on. But the bottom line is that the more things change, the more they stay the same in this market...

Once Again It May Be Time To...
By Dave M - 7/28/2015
After falling for five consecutive sessions on fears that China's stock market decline could infect the rest of the world, it appears that it might be time to...

The Not-So New Worry Is...
By Dave M - 7/27/2015
It seems like it was yesterday that the market was breathing a sigh of relief over Greece not leaving the eurozone. Don't look now fans, but there is a not-so new worry that has captured the attention of traders...

By Dave M - 7/23/2015
The current stock market environment appears to be a sideways, trendless, directionless affair that can best be described as a stalemate between the two teams. This is likely to continue until...

Cue The Negative News
By Dave M - 7/22/2015
The action in the market has become more than a little predictable lately. Every time stocks sell off for a few days something good happens and traders instantly reverse their positions. And then when the market gets back to new highs...

It's Time to Keep Things in Perspective
By Dave M - 7/20/2015
There are times when making money in the stock market is as easy as rolling out of bed. It is important to note this is not one of those times...

Warning Flag Number 3: Another One Bites The Dust
By Dave M - 7/17/2015
While both Greece and China may now be "fixed," some of our longer-term, big-picture market risk models are issuing warnings...

Buy The Dip? What Dip?
By Dave M - 7/14/2015
If investors have learned anything since 2009, it is to buy the dips in the stock market. And with all the angst in the market recently, investors have been asking...

The "Agreekment" is Done, But...
By Dave M - 7/13/2015
In the wee hours Monday, we learned that an "aGreekment" has been reached between Greece and the Eurozone. However, before you run out and celebrate, you may want to read the fine print...

Don't Look Now, But China May Be a Problem
By Dave M - 7/8/2015
The good news is the situation in Greece seems to be moving toward a conclusion. The bad news is that the crash in China's stock market may just be getting started...

Back To The Table
By Dave M - 7/7/2015
Although analysts suggest the odds of a "Grexit" are rising, the good news for the markets is that both sides are getting back to the bargaining table today. As such, the market seems to expect...

Greece Says "No" But Will It Matter?
By Dave M - 7/6/2015
Although Greece voted "no" in a resounding fashion and officials there now expect a quick resolution, the country's creditors are still waiting for the country to come up with new proposals...

Hooray - The Game is Back On
By Dave M - 7/1/2015
Yes, Greece became the first country to officially default on payments to the IMF. No, a deal has not been reached. Yes, the referendum is still on. But, stocks are rallying because...

Like It Or Not, Greece Is Back
By Dave M - 6/30/2015
Whether you like it or not, Greece is back to driving the daily action in the stock market. The latest in this Greek drama is that there still may be a chance for an 11th hour deal...

Let's Vote!
By Dave M - 6/29/2015
The crisis in Greece has taken a turn for the worse as PM Alexis Tsipras decided to abandon a last minute deal and instead has called for a national vote on whether to accept a bailout...

Another Greek Deadline Approaches, So...
By Dave M - 6/26/2015
So far at least, the latest Greek drama is going according to script. So, with a 'make or break' weekend deadline fast approaching, we should expect...

Is There Anything Else To Focus On?
By Dave M - 6/25/2015
We decided it was time to step away from the news flow surrounding the situation in Greece and see what the bigger-picture focus is likely to be...

Still All About Greece (Yawn)
By Dave M - 6/24/2015
Although traders have seen this movie many, many times before and everybody knows that the hero doesn't die in the end, this market continues to focus on...

A Break In The Action (Or Same 'Ol, Same 'Ol)?
By Dave M - 6/23/2015
The question of the day is if Monday's action represented a break in the recent trading range, or simply more of the same?

Following The Script (So Far)
By Dave M - 6/22/2015
The current edition of the Greece crisis continues to follow the script. Thus, the only question is if the deal will get done before the default clock strikes midnight...

Here We Go Again...
By Dave M - 6/16/2015
While it pains me to do so, it appears that we must, once again, pay attention to the goings on in Greece...

The Fed, Rates, Greece (Yes, Again) and Seasonality
By Dave M - 6/15/2015
Coming into the new week, traders have a long list of items to focus on including Greece (yes, seriously), the Fed, rates and late June seasonality...

The Big Picture Indicators Tell Us...
By Dave M - 6/11/2015
Sometimes it pays to step back from the blinking screens and take a look at the big-picture indicators of the stock market's health...

Don't Take Your Eyes Off The Bond Market
By Dave M - 6/10/2015
Don't look now fans, but the bond market is making a move. So, is this "the move" that traders have been predicting for years? Is it time to head for the hills?

So Many Worries, So Little Time
By Dave M - 6/9/2015
In looking at the state of the market on a short-term basis, it would appear that there are ample reasons to worry at this point in time...

Desert Island Indicator Update
By Dave M - 6/8/2015
Today we review the status of the indicator that I would take with me If I were stranded on a deserted island and had only one indicator to try and manage the risk of the stock market with...

Keep An Eye on Bonds
By Dave M - 6/4/2015
If you want to understand the goings on in the stock market right now, you've got to understand what is happening in the bond markets around the globe...

Things That Keep Me Up At Night
By Dave M - 6/2/2015
While there are lots of reasons to worry about the stock market, one of the things that keeps me up at night from an investing standpoint has to do with bonds...

Two Trends Worth Noting
By Dave M - 6/1/2015
While stocks continue to whip back and forth on a daily basis, there are two trends on the chart worth paying attention to...

Some History on Tight Trading Ranges
By Dave M - 5/28/2015
After spending 6 months in a tight, sideways trading range, this market may appear to be acting relatively normal. However, history suggests...

A Crack In The Foundation
By Dave M - 5/27/2015
Don't look now fans, but the first crack in the foundation of this very long bull market may have been spotted...

Bonds May Hold The Key
By Dave M - 5/26/2015
Although the S&P 500 finds itself only a stone's throw from an all-time, the key to the next move in the stock market may be found in the bond pits...

American Pharaoh Taking Things To New Heights?
By Dave M - 5/21/2015
The Bottom Line: The stock market should continue higher on its way to Dow 20,000 with periodic bouts of weakness to keep everyone honest...

Will the 15th Time Be the Charm?
By Dave M - 5/15/2015
The question of the day is if the S&P 500 will be able to finally break out of the trading range that has been in effect for three months...

It's a Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise
By Dave M - 5/14/2015
With the market whipping back and forth for the better part of the last 6 months, it is important to keep in mind that from a bigger-picture standpoint...

Trend Challenged
By Dave M - 5/13/2015
With the market having been "trend challenged" for quite some time now, it might pay to look at the action from...

All Eyes On Global Interest Rates
By Dave M - 5/12/2015
Don't look now fans, but interest rates are on the rise around the globe and the move is upsetting stock traders...

Five Ways To Play The New, New Normal Market
By Dave M - 5/11/2015
Today we explore five different ways to play a market that has been range-bound for the better part of the last six months

Is This The New, New Normal?
By Dave M - 5/1/2015
The question of the day is if Thursday's decline, which seemed to lack any real catalyst, was the start of something meaningful or just another in a long string of pullbacks seen since the beginning of December.

Just The Way The Game Is Being Played
By Dave M - 4/30/2015
There can be no denying that intraday volatility has been "a thing" during the vast majority of 2015's trading sessions. And perhaps this is just the way the game is being played these days

What's the Takeaway?
By Dave M - 4/29/2015
Given that the action has been a little strange in the markets lately, it is probably time to step back and look at the market from a couple different angles...

Modern Day Distribution?
By Dave M - 4/28/2015
The action seen in the stock market over the past two months makes us wonder if we are seeing a modern day version of a classic Wall Street sign...

Dangerous Divergence Developing?
By Dave M - 4/27/2015
The real question of the day is if a dangerous divergence is developing between the major market indices

Will The Generals Follow The Troops This Time?
By Dave M - 4/24/2015
While the Dow and S&P 500 remain stuck in a sideways trading range, the NASDAQ, the Russell and the Middies appear to be doing well...

The Waters Remain Muddy at Best
By Dave M - 4/23/2015
Although some of the uncertainty in this market appears to be receding, the waters remain muddy at best here...

More Reasons For Uncertainty to Remain
By Dave M - 4/22/2015
Although the current earnings season remains front and center, there are other reasons for traders to remain cautious at this time...

Waiting For Uncertainty to Dissipate
By Dave M - 4/21/2015
With more than 150 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings this week, traders can't be blamed for wanting to...

The Cycles Say We Should...
By Dave M - 4/20/2015
The historical cycle suggest that stocks should move higher once the current bout of algo-induced hysteria ends. However, there might be a fly in the ointment...

Poised To Break Up, Or...
By Dave M - 4/17/2015
For several months, the game on Wall Street has been to sell once the market approaches a new high. As such, it is not surprising to see this game...

The "Message" Is Beginning To Take Shape
By Dave M - 4/15/2015
With the earnings parade now underway, the "message" from the current reporting season is beginning take shape.

Let The Games Begin
By Dave M - 4/13/2015
While the Fed has been the focus of the stock market for some time now, the state of the earnings season is likely to take center stage this week...

Pricing Equilibrium (For Now)
By Dave M - 4/9/2015
With the stock market stuck in the middle of the current trading range it would appear that traders have sought out an equilibrium point in front of the earnings parade...

Searching For Clarity
By Dave M - 4/8/2015
The key to the stock market at this time is the high degree of uncertainty on important issues such as the Fed, the economy and earnings...

A Severe Case of Bipolar Disorder
By Dave M - 4/7/2015
The stock market appears to be suffering from a rather severe case of bipolar disorder as almost every day results in either a manic or depressive state...

Will the Data Bring the Bears Out of Hibernation?
By Dave M - 4/6/2015
The question of the day is if the weaker than expected jobs report will give the edge in the stock market to the bears...

Why Managers May Be De-Risking Portfolios Here
By Dave M - 4/1/2015
You can't really blame managers for perhaps being a little nervous here as there are a multitude of issues to fret over...

Wait... Did He Really Say QE?
By Dave M - 3/31/2015
One of the reasons for Monday's surge in the stock market was the use of the words "QE" and "China" in the same sentence. Yep, that's right; it looks China might be thinking about getting in the game...

It's All About, Well...
By Dave M - 3/30/2015
While this market appears to have a rather severe case of A.D.D. the current focus appears to be on a handful of issues...

What The Market Hates Most Is...
By Dave M - 3/27/2015
If there is one thing the market hates the most, it is uncertainty. And the bottom line at this point in time is that there is a fair amount of...

Why The Dive?
By Dave M - 3/26/2015
The question of the day is why the stock market has suddenly fallen out of bed. Three days ago, the S&P 500 was knocking on the door of a new all-time high...

Crosswinds Remain Strong In This Market
By Dave M - 3/25/2015
The prevailing back-and-forth, up-and-down market environment is being caused by the extreme cross winds...

A "Sheer Misery" Market Defined
By Dave M - 3/24/2015
It is no secret that most "tactical" managers have struggled with the current market environment. Here's why...

Will The Recent Trend Continue?
By Dave M - 3/23/2015
With the S&P 500 within spitting distance of another new all-time high, the question of the day is...

Can You Say, Dovish?
By Dave M - 3/19/2015
The key to this market remains the Fed and the "liquidity trade" however, it is important to understand why...

Patience is Waning
By Dave M - 3/18/2015
The key to the current market remains the likelihood that Ms. Yellen and her merry band of central bankers will remove the word "patient" from their guidance on rates...

Are Stocks Overvalued (And Does it Matter)?
By Dave M - 3/16/2015
With stocks pulling back from all-time highs recently, one of the big concerns is that the market is overvalued...

Are You Looking At the Right Picture?
By Dave M - 3/3/2015
There was a great deal of attention in the media surrounding the NASDAQ recapturing the 5,000 mark with many analysts concerned about...

China, Europe, Fed Remain Focal Points for Markets
By Dave M - 3/2/2015
The big news over the weekend involved China. First, in a surprise move, the People's Bank of China cut interest rates...

There Is Not a Bubble in the U.S. Stock Market, But...
By Dave M - 2/27/2015
We will argue that there is no bubble forming in the U.S. stock market at the present time. However, one big area of concern is...

China, Bullard Making Headlines...
By Dave M - 2/26/2015
While most of the attention has been on Janet Yellen this week, traders may soon turn their attention the the goings on in China...

The Key To This Move Is...
By Dave M - 2/25/2015
The key to yesterday's move to fresh all-time highs was easy to identify as Janet Yellen did herself proud in front of...

The Story of the Day Is...
By Dave M - 2/24/2015
Although there have been an awful lot of headlines crossing the tape relating to a variety of topics, the key focus remains on...

On To The Next Big Thing?
By Dave M - 2/23/2015
With the drama in Greece apparently over, it is time for traders to turn their attention to the next big thing...

Greece, Oil Remain the Focal Points
By Dave M - 2/19/2015
Trying to pin down the primary driver of the current stock market is a little tricky as there seems to be three or four sources of input these days...

If Prices Continue to Follow the Recent Trend...
By Dave M - 2/17/2015
Over the past seven months, the vast majority of "breakouts" on the charts of the major indices have been followed by...

Traders Cutting To The Chase
By Dave M - 2/13/2015
So far at least, the current Greek drama is going largely according to script. However, there does appear to be a plot twist this time around...

Traders Have Seen This Greek Drama Before
By Dave M - 2/11/2015
A showdown between Greek and Eurozone foreign ministers is expected today, with some explosive headline likely. However...

None The Worse For Wear?
By Dave M - 2/10/2015
Although the intraday action has been more than a little volatile of late, from a bigger picture point of view, the market appears to be...

Is 'Grexit' Back On The Table?
By Dave M - 2/9/2015
Think the market is all about oil? Think again. It appears that fears about a 'Grexit' is the latest focal point...

So, Greece is Not the Word?
By Dave M - 2/5/2015
While a headline about Greece caused quite a stir in the markets Wednesday afternoon, it appears to be business as usual Thursday morning...

Tip of the Day: It's Still All About Oil
By Dave M - 2/4/2015
While it would be easy to get excited about the two-day surge in the stock market, the bottom line is this market is still all about...

Bears Snatched Defeat From The...
By Dave M - 2/3/2015
With a list of worries as long as your arm and the indices breaking through important technical levels, the bears seemed to have the game well in hand...

Traders Eyeing the Line in the Sand
By Dave M - 2/2/2015
There are plenty of worries in the stock market these days. And with prices currently perched at an important line in the sand, the next move will be important...

The Important Message From Earnings Season
By Dave M - 1/30/2015
One of the best ways to get a feel for what is really going on out there is to listen to the message from the big names when they report earnings...

Recent Tape Action is Worrisome
By Dave M - 1/29/2015
While stocks remain in decent shape on a chart basis, the recent tape action is becoming worrisome...

Stuck In The Middle With You
By Dave M - 1/28/2015
The refrain from the Stealer's Wheel hit seems to be an appropriate description of where the stock market sits at the present time...

Negative Inputs May Cause Investors to Rethink Bull Premise
By Dave M - 1/27/2015
In the last 24 hours, traders have been treated to an abundance of new inputs. The problem is that most are negative...

Where Will The Focus Be?
By Dave M - 1/26/2015
The question of the day is what will traders focus their algos on now? Will it be the big anti-austerity party win in Greece or...

History Suggest Bulls May Be Ready to Run Again
By Dave M - 1/23/2015
While two 5-day declines within a 10 day period would seem to suggest that the bears are in charge, history tells us...

Draghi Finally Fires 'The Bazooka'
By Dave M - 1/22/2015
The focus of the market this morning is easy to identify as all eyes are on Mario Draghi and the ECB...

Uncertainty Remains The Name of the Game (For Now)
By Dave M - 1/21/2015
The name of the game in the stock market right now is uncertainty. And with one key issue set to be resolved Thursday...

Add It To The List?
By Dave M - 1/16/2015
The question of the day is if investors should add U.S. economic data to their growing list of worries? The answer is...

Swiss Move Surprises Markets, But Focus Remains on Oil
By Dave M - 1/15/2015
In a surprise move, the Swiss National Bank cut rates and removed the cap on the franc relative to the euro. This has caused...

Trying to Make Sense of the Increase in Volatility
By Dave M - 1/14/2015
The question of the day on Tuesday was why investors were treated to a roller coaster ride of more than 400 points on the Dow...

Is It Time To Fire Your Manager/Fund/ETF/Strategy?
By Dave M - 1/13/2015
It's that time of year again. The time when investors review the performance of their portfolio. But the question is if they are doing it correctly...

Is QE to Blame For All The V-Bottoms?
By Dave M - 1/9/2015
It is clear that something has changed in the market over the last two years as all pullbacks are met with "V Bottoms." The obvious question is, why?

Never Fear, The Next "V" May Be Here
By Dave M - 1/8/2015
For the third time in the last four months, the market appears to putting in a "V Bottom" - something that was once a rare occurrence...

Is It Time to Worry About Growth in the U.S.?
By Dave M - 1/7/2015
With the majority of economic data coming below expectations over the last three weeks, some argue that it is time to worry about growth in the U.S...

Greece Again? Say It Ain't So!
By Dave M - 1/6/2015
Although officials suggest there is no reason to fear a "Grexit" from the Eurozone, investors continue to fret about the spillover...

Hard To Believe, But Greece Still in Focus
By Dave M - 1/5/2015
While it is hard to believe, worries about a "Grexit" remain a focal point in the market these days...

Expectations for Stimulus Aiding Mood on Wall Street
By Dave M - 1/2/2015
After a disappointing end to an otherwise strong year for the stock market in 2014, the mood appears to be improved on this first trading day of 2015...

The New Year's Eve Line in the Sand
By Dave M - 12/31/2014
There is a line in the sand that the those traders actually at their desks will be dealing with on this final trading day of 2014...

A Year of Underperformance - The Horror!
By Dave M - 12/29/2014
There has been a lot of talk about active managers underperforming the S&P 500 this year. The question is should you be concerned?

Looking For Stabilization
By Dave M - 12/24/2014
The key to the current market is the hope that the both the crash in oil and the potential crisis in Russia are beginning to stabilize...

What Do The Cycles Say About 2015?
By Dave M - 12/23/2014
With the stock market at all-time highs, the next question is what 2015 will look like. As such, it is time to check in with the cycle work...

Can They Be Trusted?
By Dave M - 12/22/2014
The question of the day is if the most recent "V" bottom and the ensuing surge in prices can be trusted at this stage of the game...

Everything is Fixed Now, Right?
By Dave M - 12/19/2014
With the stock market putting in its best two-day performance since March 2009, the feeling is that everything is all better now...

Forget Oil, Is It All About Russia Now?
By Dave M - 12/17/2014
While the markets have been focused on the crash in oil prices, traders may be now turning their attention to the potential for another crisis in the emerging markets...

Will Oil Trigger The Next Bear Market?
By Dave M - 12/15/2014
The question of the day is if the decline in oil will trigger a bear market in stocks...

Making Sense of the Oil/Stock Linkage
By Dave M - 12/11/2014
Although it may sound odd, stock prices have been moving in lock step with the price of oil recently. Here's why...

All Eyes Remain on Oil
By Dave M - 12/10/2014
The focal points in the market remain largely the same at this time as all eyes remain glued to the action in the oil market...

The Latest Worries About Oil And...
By Dave M - 12/9/2014
Although the decline in oil prices may be a positive for consumers, there are reasons to worry about prices falling too far...

What's Your Plan for 2015 and Beyond?
By Dave M - 12/8/2014
It's that time of year again. Time to review your portfolio and make adjustments. But the real key is that NOW is the time to plot strategy for...

The Bears Are Making Their List and Checking it Twice...
By Dave M - 12/3/2014
While stocks traditionally rise in December, the bears contend that there are plenty of items on their list worthy of investors' attention this season...

Are The Worries For Real?
By Dave M - 12/2/2014
Although the major indices are just two days removed from all-time highs, there are fresh worries in the market. The question is if they are for real...

Oil: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
By Dave M - 12/1/2014
The big decline in oil prices is attracting a lot of attention right now. Here's why...

The Bulls Are Running, But It Is Now Time To...
By Dave M - 11/28/2014
While the bulls are on a record roll at the present time, now is also the time to start planning for...

Holiday Seasonality In Play, But...
By Dave M - 11/26/2014
The seasonality surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday tends to be modestly favorable. However...

All Bets Are Off
By Dave M - 11/21/2014
Now that the Chinese have cut rates and the ECB looks primed to launch QE, any analysis done previously is borderline useless...

The Bears Are Baffled
By Dave M - 11/19/2014
A month ago, the sky was falling. But yesterday the S&P set a new world record of sorts. What is going on here?

The Biggest Surprise Wasn't...
By Dave M - 11/18/2014
The biggest surprise in the market wasn't that Japan suddenly was in recession again or that BoE Carney was worried about deflation or...

The Future of Investing: A NEW Diversification Approach
By Dave M - 11/17/2014
Old school diversification proved disappointing during the the last two bear markets. The future of investing involves...

Busted: One of the Greatest Myths in Investing
By Dave M - 11/14/2014
One of the biggest myths in investing is that you can't time the market, so you shouldn't even try. However...

There Are Reasons To Stay Bullish Here
By Dave M - 11/7/2014
Although stocks have run a long way in a short period of time, there are at least 8 reasons to be bullish on the market here...

Isn't It Odd That...
By Dave M - 11/6/2014
While stocks have been moving higher lately, it is a little odd that some defensive sectors leading the way. And about that election result...

Is Uncertainty Creeping In?
By Dave M - 11/5/2014
While traders can celebrate the Republican victory in Washington, there might be some uncertainty creeping in across the pond...

Can We Trust the Bulls' Latest Stampede?
By Dave M - 11/4/2014
The bulls have stampeded their way to a gain of nearly 11% in 12 days. The question is if the move has staying power...

The QE Dance Continues
By Dave M - 11/3/2014
The QE Dance will likely continue in the near-term. It's really a version of the Two-Step and here's the way it works...

The New Battle Cry: Inflation or Bust!
By Dave M - 10/31/2014
Back in the day, inflation was the enemy. Today, central bankers have a new battle they are fighting: Deflation. And the BOJ just...

Hawkish Or Just Plain Pragmatic?
By Dave M - 10/30/2014
The question of the day is if the Fed is now being overly hawkish on inflation or just plain pragmatic?

Apparently There Is Nothing To Fear But...
By Dave M - 10/29/2014
The bulls put a bit of an exclamation point on what is turning out to be a real joyride to the upside higher yesterday as the S&P 500 once again rallied hard without the benefit of an obvious catalyst...

A Spooky, Must-See Chart For The Season
By Dave M - 10/28/2014
It is getting to be that time of year where writers feel compelled to somehow work the words spooky, scary, frightful etc., into their work. So, in keeping with tradition...

The Focus Remains on Fed and Headlines
By Dave M - 10/27/2014
The early action on this fine Monday morning suggests that traders are still taking their cues from any/all headlines relating to Ebola

A Case of The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
By Dave M - 10/24/2014
The recent market action has been a case of the good, the bad, and the ugly as volatility continues to drive prices up and down in rapid fashion...

The Only Story That Mattered
By Dave M - 10/23/2014
There were three important stories in the market on Wednesday. But in reality there was only one that mattered...

In Case You've Forgotten, It Doesn't Pay To Fight The...
By Dave M - 10/22/2014
The latest and greatest instant turnaround/"V" bottom in the stock market was sponsored by the Fed's James Bullard. And in case you've forgotten...

The Big Picture: Time to Buy The Dip?
By Dave M - 10/21/2014
While the action has been fast and furious of late, from a big picture standpoint it is likely time to start buying the dip...

We're Watching The Charts, Big Blue and the Fed
By Dave M - 10/20/2014
The key to the near-term direction of the market may be the price action itself as well well as the comments from Fed officials...

Central Bankers Start Talking The Talk
By Dave M - 10/17/2014
With the market on the verge of breaking down again, central bankers started to say all the right things...

There Is a Sixth "E" to Worry About
By Dave M - 10/16/2014
Yesterday's economic data suggests that there is yet another "E" for the stock market to fret about right now...

The Problem Are The Five E's
By Dave M - 10/15/2014
Stocks continue to be on the defensive and the reasons behind the dive all start with the letter E...

Should You Worry About the Break of the 200-Day?
By Dave M - 10/14/2014
The S&P 500 broke below its widely followed 200-day moving average yesterday afternoon. So, it is time to worry?

An Awful Lot To Consider
By Dave M - 10/13/2014
The key driver to the markets is that state of global growth and the big question is how low the current correction will go...

This Time, The Worries Are Fundamental
By Dave M - 10/10/2014
This time around, there is no crisis for traders to freak out about. No, this time the worries in the market are fundamental...

Slow Means Go After Fed Alters Its Outlook
By Dave M - 10/9/2014
In case you were wondering, the stock market continues to be all about the Fed and when rates will start to rise...

Are Things Really and Truly Different This Time?
By Dave M - 10/8/2014
With the dip-buyers failing to produce the usual "V" bottom, the bears are out in force saying that things are indeed different this time. However...

It's a Good News/Bad News Situation
By Dave M - 10/7/2014
The stock market remains conflicted at the present time. To summarize, it's a good news/bad news situation as both teams have strong arguments...

7 Dips, 7 New Highs. Is This Number 8?
By Dave M - 10/6/2014
The question of the day is if the latest dip will lead to yet another all-time high in the stock market...

Yet Another Dip-Buying Opportunity, Right?
By Dave M - 10/3/2014
The question of the day is if yesterday's dive and subsequent rebound means that the bottom of the current pullback is in...

What Do The Cycles Say Comes Next?
By Dave M - 10/2/2014
With the market on the brink of a meaningful correction, we thought it would be a good time to check on what the cycles have to say about the rest of the year...

Repeat After Me: I Will Not Make...
By Dave M - 10/1/2014
I was recently taken to task on Seeking Alpha for not taking a stand on what I believe will happen next in the stock market...

Traders Have Seen This Movie Before
By Dave M - 9/30/2014
Twice in the last two days it looked like the bears were going to break through. Twice in the last two days the S&P teetered on the brink...

Is This Dip-Buying Opportunity Different?
By Dave M - 9/29/2014
The question of the day is if the latest dip is just another in a long string of buying opportunities - or- something more meaningful...

Is This THE Correction?
By Dave M - 9/26/2014
The question of the day is if the current selloff is "THE" correction that everyone under the sun has been looking for...

Have Doves, Will Travel
By Dave M - 9/25/2014
Yesterday's stock market action once again reinforced the idea that the key driver of this market remains the outlook for monetary policy...

Are Traders Ready to BTFD Again?
By Dave M - 9/24/2014
The question of the day is if traders will employ a strategy that has been very successful over the past two years or...

Are There Sector Divergences As Well?
By Dave M - 9/23/2014
While there are clear divergences seen in the major stock market indices, the question today is if there are divergent sectors as well...

Is it Time to Worry About the Divergences?
By Dave M - 9/22/2014
Technical divergences are almost always present during a topping process in the stock market. So, are the current divergences a reason to worry?

Two Indicators That Make You Say, "Hmmm"
By Dave M - 9/19/2014
With the Fed meeting finally out of the way, traders can now turn their attention to other things happening in the markets such as...

Where's the Oomph?
By Dave M - 9/18/2014
The good news is that the Dow Jones Industrial and Transport indices both closed at new all-time highs yesterday. The bad news is

It's Fed Day, Here's What We're Watching...
By Dave M - 9/17/2014
Although the surprise move by the People's Bank of China today is all about Janet Yellen and her merry band of central bankers...

The Fed is Betting Big That...
By Dave M - 9/15/2014
All eyes are on Janet Yellen's Fed this week as the FOMC is betting big that it can...

The Fed's (VERY) Big Bets
By Dave M - 9/12/2014
There can be little argument that the U.S. Federal Reserve saved the banking system and in the process, the global economy, during the credit crisis...

The Consolidation Continues, But We're Watching...
By Dave M - 9/11/2014
The combination of the new campaign against ISIS and the Fed thinking about making a change appears to be spooking investors...

Apple a Distraction, But Still All About the Fed
By Dave M - 9/10/2014
With Apple's big event out of the way, investors can return their attention to the more mundane issues such as...

The VIX Is Cheap - Is It Time To Buy?
By Dave M - 9/9/2014
In our search for value among various asset classes, we concluded that - generally speaking - stocks are fairly to slightly overvalued, bonds are ...

Searching For Value (And Finding It In the VIX)
By Dave M - 9/8/2014
With everyone talking about valuations, we decided to go looking for asset classes that might actually be undervalued or "cheap"...

Fed Remains The Focus
By Dave M - 9/5/2014
Although there is some good news on the geopolitical front, all eyes are on the jobs report and what it means for Fed policy...

The Bears May Get It Right Eventually
By Dave M - 8/27/2014
One of the most important lessons to learn in this business is to play the hand you've been dealt and not the one you'd like...

The Current Key: Breakout or Fake-Out?
By Dave M - 8/26/2014
The key to the game at this stage is whether or not the S&P can sustain the recent breakout...

No Professor Shiller, Stocks Are Not Dangerously Overvalued
By Dave M - 8/25/2014
With the S&P moving back to new all-time highs, the debate over valuation levels in the stock market is heating up again...

All Eyes on Jackson Hole
By Dave M - 8/22/2014
If it is Friday, then there must be developments in Ukraine for traders to worry about. However, the main event is...

"No Soup For You" (Yet)
By Dave M - 8/21/2014
Sell programs in the last few minutes of Wednesday's session meant "no soup for you" as the S&P failed to close at a new all-time high...

And Now It Gets Interesting...
By Dave M - 8/20/2014
With the easy part of the market move now over, the game is about to get interesting for both teams...

The Valuation Debate: Robert Shiller is Very Worried
By Dave M - 8/18/2014
The market's near-term focus is clearly on the geopolitical issues in Ukraine/Russia. However, from a longer-term perspective...

Are Stocks Really Overvalued?
By Dave M - 8/14/2014
One of the bear camp's complaints is that stocks are currently overvalued. We dig into the data to find out...

Thoughts From The Road - Part II
By Dave M - 8/12/2014
When trying to succeed in the stock market, at least half of the battle is learning to identify the type of environment you are dealing with.

Thoughts From The Road: The Current State of the Market
By Dave M - 8/11/2014
One of the great things about a road trip is it gives you some time to think...

Are The Bears Emerging From Hibernation?
By Dave M - 8/1/2014
For the past four days, we've been warning that stock market risk is on the rise...

Four More Reasons To Be Concerned About The Stock Market
By Dave M - 7/31/2014
Five short days ago, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high at 1987.98 and the move appeared to be a breakout...

The Next 3 Reasons To Exhibit Some Caution
By Dave M - 7/30/2014
Here are three more reasons why investors may want to take their foot off of their portfolio's gas pedal right now...

3 More Reasons To Take Your Foot Off The Gas
By Dave M - 7/29/2014
Today we explore three more reasons why it might be a good idea to let up on your portfolio's gas pedal at the present time...

20 Reasons To Take Your Foot Off The Gas Pedal (Part I)
By Dave M - 7/28/2014
The list of reasons why investors may want to take their foot off the gas pedal at this stage of the game is growing...

The Most Important Things To Understand About This Market Are...
By Dave M - 7/25/2014
This has been one of the most hated bull markets in history. Everywhere you turn...

The Word of the Day is 'Improvement,' But...
By Dave M - 7/24/2014
In looking around the globe, the word that comes to mind is...

The Bears Can't Be Too Happy Right About Now
By Dave M - 7/22/2014
While the numbers in the bear camp continue to grow these days, the mood can't be too good at this stage...

Do Technical Levels Even Matter Right Now?
By Dave M - 7/21/2014
The question of the day is if the trend-following algos even recognize the important levels on the charts...

Headline Headache!
By Dave M - 7/18/2014
Thursday's string of negative headlines simply overwhelmed the bulls...

Indicators Suggest A Pullback Might Be Near, But...
By Dave M - 7/17/2014
This remains one of the most hated bull markets ever. As such a pullback could be in the wings, but...

Which Matters More: Yellen or Earnings/Econ Data?
By Dave M - 7/16/2014
The big event of Tuesday was Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony...

Can Earnings Season Carry the Bulls to Higher Ground?
By Dave M - 7/15/2014
The question of the day is if the better-than expected earnings can trump all the other worries in this market...

Has the European Debt Crisis Returned?
By Dave M - 7/11/2014
The key question at this stage is if Banco Espirito Santo's problems mean the debt crisis has resumed...

Has The Momentum Meltdown Resumed?
By Dave M - 7/9/2014
The question of the day is if the mo-mo meltdown, which plagued the market in the spring, is back...

Will the Market Be Bullied By the Fed?
By Dave M - 6/27/2014
The question of the day is if the Fed is planning to act sooner than the market anticipates...

Has The Much Ballyhooed Correction Begun?
By Dave M - 6/25/2014
The question of the day is if the much anticipated meaningful correction that analysts have been calling for...

Is Sentiment Flashing A Warning To Investors?
By Dave M - 6/23/2014
Analyzing sentiment indicators can be a tricky business. However, there is one indicator that investors may want to take note of...

2014: Macro Crowd Getting It Wrong, Again
By Dave M - 6/19/2014
If you followed the crowd's "consensus" view on what was supposed to happen this year...

What Does History Teach Us About Markets and Middle East Crises?
By Dave M - 6/17/2014
The bad news is turmoil in the Middle East is back. The good news is investors know what to expect...

Iraq is Back - Is It Time To Panic?
By Dave M - 6/16/2014
In case you've been out on the golf course, vacationing with the kids, or simply otherwise occupied, the situation in Iraq has become the primary focal point of the markets

Has The VIX Issued An Important Sell Signal?
By Dave M - 6/11/2014
The VIX starts Wednesday at multi-year lows and may have flashed an important signal this week...

By Dave M - 6/6/2014
Despite what many analysts deem insurmountable concerns, the stock market continues to rise...

Do The Bull Have The Edge Here?
By Dave M - 5/29/2014
The key question of the day is if the breakout on the S&P 500 can hold. One indicators says the bull appear to have the edge...

There's Good News In Them Thar Charts
By Dave M - 5/28/2014
A funny thing happened to the market meltdown that the vast majority of market analysts have been calling for..

The State of the Bull Market: What Do the Models Say?
By Dave M - 5/27/2014
When the environment gets frustrating, we like to turn to our unemotional market models for clues as the what comes next...

Is The Market Environment Improving?
By Dave M - 5/23/2014
The question of the day is if the momentum names are starting to stabilize...

Time For A Portfolio Pep Talk
By Dave M - 5/15/2014
From time to time, most investors need a pep talk about sticking with their plan...

Are Those Bear Tracks Important?
By Dave M - 5/14/2014
While Ms. Market may not serve up a devastating bear anytime soon, there are bear tracks to be found...

Could a "Baby Bear" Be Around The Corner?
By Dave M - 5/13/2014
The stock market appears to be climbing a wall of worry at the present time. But...

History Doesn't Suggest Major Correction is Due
By Dave M - 5/12/2014
The question of the day is relatively straightforward at this time...

Can The Market Survive the Mo-Mo Meltdown?
By Dave M - 5/2/2014
History shows that there have indeed been occasions when the broad market has survived a mo-mo meltdown...

The Question of the Day Is...
By Dave M - 5/1/2014
The DJIA closed at a record high on Wednesday, yet the Russell 2000 remains in a downtrend. Thus, the question of the day is...

10 Bear Market Catalysts To Watch For
By Dave M - 4/29/2014
The action in 2014 has left many analysts worried that the current bull market is morphing into something grizzlier...

Stock Market Indices Singing a Not-So Happy Tune
By Dave M - 4/28/2014
Paul Schatz tells us that the market's character in 2014 is very different than that seen in 2013...

2014: Deja Vu All Over Again?
By Dave M - 4/25/2014
Many analysts believe that 2014 is looking like a replay of 2005. If so, here's the way to play the game...

Bears Got It Wrong Again (On Bonds)
By Dave M - 4/23/2014
The macro view on the bond market at the start of 2014 was clear. And wrong...

The Cycles Say "Beware!" (Or Do They?)
By Dave M - 4/22/2014
Most analysts are looking for a meaningful decline in the stock market in the coming months. However, this just in...

Free Money Trumps Valuations Issues
By Dave M - 4/17/2014
Stocks have rebounded strongly from Friday's lows on the back of the idea that central bank stimulus is more important than...

Is It 'Time' For a Major Correction?
By Dave M - 4/15/2014
A couple key long-term indicators suggest that it may indeed be time for a meaningful correction soon...

No Crisis, No News and No Rumors
By Dave M - 4/14/2014
For the past 7-8 years, every meaningful decline in the stock market has been accompanied by a crisis, a headline, a rumor, etc...

Like Janet Said, We Can Stop Worrying About the Dots
By Dave M - 4/10/2014
One of the market's underlying concerns was that the Fed would start raising rates sooner than had been anticipated...

A Better Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear
By Dave M - 4/9/2014
We continue to look at ways to stay on the right side of the market's big, important trends...

A Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear
By Dave M - 4/8/2014
Last week, we promised to offer an idea or two on how to stay on the right side of the big, important moves...

Mo-Mo Is Suddenly A No-No
By Dave M - 4/7/2014
Friday's surprise decline had nothing to do with jobs, the economy, or earnings. No, it was the ongoing selloff in the momentum names that was to blame...

Are You Ready For The Bears To Return?
By Dave M - 4/4/2014
It is said that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. So, will you be ready this time when the bears finally come out of hibernation?

What Do the Cycles Say About April 2014?
By Dave M - 4/2/2014
Yesterday's break to new highs for the S&P raises the question of where do we go from here. We consult the historical cycles for answers...

A Tale of Two Headlines
By Dave M - 4/1/2014
Monday's rally was in response to two headlines that laid to rest worries about Russia and the Fed...

A Sell Signal To Watch For
By Dave M - 3/31/2014
With markets moving sideways, traders need to know where the exit is at all times...

A VIX Buy Signal Worth Watching
By Dave M - 3/21/2014
Although there is some math involved, one of our favorite VIX indicators recently flashed a buy signal...

Of Dot Plots and Definitions
By Dave M - 3/20/2014
It is very clear that the focus of the stock market has moved from Crimea back to Fed Policy...

Using the VIX to Buy the Dip
By Dave M - 3/19/2014
Buying the dips has been a very effective plan for the past three years. Here's a way to help guide those decisions...

Is China the Source of the Constant Consternation?
By Dave M - 3/18/2014
For the past week or so, the focus of the market has been all about Crimea and what could happen if the geopolitical tensions continued to mount. However...

Should We Be Worried About Crimea?
By Dave M - 3/17/2014
Last week's modest pullback was triggered primarily by concerns about the situation in Crimea. But should we really be worried about this?

Are Stocks Becoming Over-Owned?
By Dave M - 3/13/2014
Public ownership of U.S. equities now exceeds the levels seen in 2007. But...

The Way The Game is Played These Days
By Dave M - 3/12/2014
When the action in the market doesn't seem to make sense, it is important to understand the way the game is played these days...

Apparently This Bull's Not Quite Dead Yet
By Dave M - 3/11/2014
The bears had plenty to work with on Monday but once again went away disappointed...

Another Long-Term Sell Signal Worth Noting
By Dave M - 3/10/2014
While the bulls remain in control of the game, another sell signal has been issued by one of our favorite long-term indicators...

Learning The Crisis Play Book
By Dave M - 3/5/2014
Anyone surprised by Tuesday's joyride to the upside needs to learn how traders tend to play a crisis...

Is The Ukraine Crisis For Real?
By Dave M - 3/4/2014
The key question of the day is if the geopolitical tension in Ukraine represents a true crisis...

Breakout or Fakeout - How Can We Know For Sure?
By Dave M - 2/28/2014
The S&P 500 pushed to a new all-time high on Thursday. However, the question remains if the breakout was real or just another breakout fakeout...

Bears Defending Their Turf
By Dave M - 2/27/2014
The intraday action lately has made it very clear that the bears (and their algos) are trying to defend their turf...

How To Identify A Stock Picker's Market
By Dave M - 2/26/2014
After several years of risk-on/risk-off trading, stock picking appears to be back in a big way. Here's why...

A Real Yen for Stocks?
By Dave M - 2/25/2014
When the market moves don't appear to make any sense at all, look to the yen for clues...

Stocks In 2014: How'd We Get Here and What Does It Mean?
By Dave M - 2/24/2014
Thirty-five trading days into the new year, the S&P stands just about where it started. So, what does the action so far mean...

Next Move: Blow-Off or Blow Up?
By Dave M - 2/21/2014
The question of the day is if the market's next move will be a bullish blow-off to the upside, or...

Eight Bullish Factors To Consider
By Dave M - 2/12/2014
Now that stocks have recovered from the recent bout of emergingmarketitis, there are some bullish factors to be considered...

Five Ways to Deal With the Changing Environment
By Dave M - 2/11/2014
The proliferation of algo-driven trading has caused the character of the market to change. Here are five ways investors can deal with the new environment...

What Do the Cycles Say About February 2014?
By Dave M - 2/6/2014
With traders waiting on Friday's Jobs report, it is a good time to check in on the historical cycles...

A Sell Signal Worth Noting
By Dave M - 2/5/2014
The "January Effect" has issued a sell signal. Traders may want to take note of what it has meant in the past...

Has The Next Worry Arrived?
By Dave M - 2/4/2014
You've got to love the stock market game. Just about the time you think you've got it figured out, boom - it changes.

The Key Question in the Market Remains...
By Dave M - 2/3/2014
The key question in the stock market at the present time is if the situation in the emerging markets will turn into a full-fledged crisis, or...

Did The VIX Have It Right?
By Dave M - 1/31/2014
We've been focused on inter-market analysis this week. And while the outlook has been confusing, it looks like the VIX had it right...

Is It Time To Move Into Crisis Mode?
By Dave M - 1/30/2014
The question of the day remains whether or not the U.S. stock market is in full-blown crisis mode...

Is There Really a Crisis in Emerging Markets, Or...?
By Dave M - 1/29/2014
From my perch, the question of the day is if the recent selling in stocks represents a real crisis or...

Emerging Markets Mess: Blame It On The Fed?
By Dave M - 1/28/2014
All eyes are on the emerging markets right now as traders worry that a new crisis is developing. But some think we should blame the mess on the Fed...

Will the Worries Stick?
By Dave M - 1/27/2014
With the market clearly in worry mode over the state of the emerging market currency meltdown, the question of the day is if the worry will stick...

Is It Time To Worry Again?
By Dave M - 1/24/2014
The charts of the major stock indices are telling different stories right now. However, the situation in the emerging markets could be a problem...

Another Way to Look at Valuations
By Dave M - 1/16/2014
Traditionally, investors have looked at ratios of price-to-earnings, price-to-dividends, price-to-book, etc. But there is another way to play the valuation game...

The Market Math on Valuations
By Dave M - 1/15/2014
Goldman Sachs' report on market valuations caused quite a stir on Monday. Today, we will take an objective look at some of the indicators...

Are The Bears Back?
By Dave M - 1/14/2014
Did the bears finally find a reason to be on Monday?

The Market Math on Investor Sentiment
By Dave M - 1/13/2014
Continuing our look at the important market models, today we look at the area of investor sentiment, which is becoming extreme...

More on Market Math - Economic and Inflation Indicators
By Dave M - 1/10/2014
After a review of the monetary and tape indicators, it's time to turn our attention to the economy and inflation...

What's The Message From The Market Math - Part II
By Dave M - 1/9/2014
Yesterday we explored the cliché "Don't fight the Fed." Today we're looking at "Don't fight the tape"...

What's The Message From the Market Math?
By Dave M - 1/8/2014
Everyone likes to make predictions about the stock market. We prefer to look at 'market math' - I.E. our objective market models...

What Do The Cycles Say About January 2014?
By Dave M - 1/7/2014
With stocks heading in the wrong direction so far in 2014, many investors may be wondering what's next for the market...

The 13 Things We Learned 2013 - Part III
By Dave M - 1/6/2014
In this final installment of the 13 things investors should have taken away from the markets in 2013, we look at...

13 Things We Learned in 2013 - Part II
By Dave M - 12/30/2013
There were important lessons to learn in 2013. Here are a handful of things we thought were worth remembering from the year that was...

13 Things We Learned in 2013
By Dave M - 12/23/2013
It's that time of year when we look back to see if we learned anything this year...

2014 Planning: Buy Signals To Watch For
By Dave M - 12/20/2013
Respected analysts expect a big decline sometime in 2014. So here's a couple buy signals to have at the ready when it's over...

Lesson From The Fed: ZIRP Trumps Taper
By Dave M - 12/19/2013
The important takeaway from Wednesday's FOMC meeting was that Z.I.R.P. is more important than the Taper. And yes, the press got that wrong.

2014 Planning: Two Sell Signals to Watch For
By Dave M - 12/18/2013
The key to getting the stock market right is to have indicators you can rely on. Here's two sell signals that may prove useful in the coming year...

2014: What's The Plan, Stan?
By Dave M - 12/17/2013
A great many investors missed out of the big gains available in the U.S. stock market. The key going forward is to...

The Bear Case: Are Stocks Over Owned?
By Dave M - 12/16/2013
Today, we will continue to explore the bear argument and will look at the idea that stocks are over owned at this point in time...

Are Stocks Overbought, Overvalued, Over Owned, and Over Exuberant?
By Dave M - 12/13/2013
The bears suggest that stock market sentiment has become overly optimistic. Our indicators suggest that our furry friends just might have a point...

"Dangerous But Necessary"
By Dave M - 12/12/2013
Sometimes identifying the drivers to the market action can be challenging, but...

Missed Big Gains in 2013? Look Before You Leap!
By Dave M - 12/11/2013
A great many investors have missed out on 2013's big gains in the stock market. But, before you leap into the game for 2014...

The Quiet Period Has Arrived At Last
By Dave M - 12/10/2013
While this market remains all about the taper, the fact that Fed officials are now in a quiet period before the next meeting could help stock volatility...

Goldilocks Lives!
By Dave M - 12/9/2013
The key to Friday's jobs report wasn't that "good news is good" again....

Fair Warning: Things Could Get Ugly!
By Dave M - 12/6/2013
While everyone expects 2013 to finish strong, be forewarned that the bears could return soon!

Taper Tantrums Continue To Dominate The Action
By Dave M - 12/5/2013
In case it isn't obvious what has been driving the market action lately...

Even the Bears are Bulls... For Now
By Dave M - 12/4/2013
Guest editor Paul Schatz suggests that the stock market looks tired right now...

What Do The Cycles Say About December?
By Dave M - 12/3/2013
With everyone thinking December will be positive, it's time to check in on our cycle work...

2014: Show Me The Money, Or Else!
By Dave M - 12/2/2013
Looking ahead to 2014, it appears that the U.S. economy and corporate revenues need to perk up in order to justify higher stock prices...

One Tweet Was All You Needed
By Dave M - 11/22/2013
Thursday's reversal of Wednesday's decline may have caused some confusion. But one tweet was all you needed to make sense of it all...

Understanding the Cliché: It's Not the News...
By Dave M - 11/21/2013
One of the oldest clichés on Wall Street suggests that "It's not the news, but how the market reacts to the news that matters."

Are There Reasons To Be Nervous Right Now?
By Dave M - 11/20/2013
The question of the day is if there is enough nervousness among investors to create a pause in the current bull run...

Big, Round Numbers
By Dave M - 11/19/2013
The media's fascination with round numbers on the major indices - especially the Dow Jones Industrials - is one of the great mysteries of the investing game.

Does Yellen See A Bubble In Stocks?
By Dave M - 11/15/2013
It seems that everyone is talking bubbles in stocks and real estate these days. Even Janet Yellen was asked if she sees any forming...

Understanding The Ramp Higher
By Dave M - 11/14/2013
It is probably a safe bet that Wednesday's ramp higher into the close left more than a few folks scratching their heads...

What Can Be Learned When The Algos Are In Charge?
By Dave M - 11/13/2013
Sometimes how the action unfolds on an intraday basis can speak volumes about what is going on...

What Kind of Bull Market Is This Anyway?
By Dave M - 11/12/2013
Many analysts argue that the current bull move is getting long in the tooth and that the bears are due to come out of hibernation soon...

Expectations For The Fed's Next Move
By Dave M - 11/11/2013
Expectations for what the Fed will do next are on the move...

Did Twitter Mark "The Top"?
By Dave M - 11/8/2013
The bears are arguing that the top is in...

What Do The Cycles Say For November?
By Dave M - 11/1/2013
With the recent rally starting to falter, it's time to check in with the cycle forecasts to see if there is an edge to be gained...

Did Bernanke Put The Taper Back On The Table?
By Dave M - 10/31/2013
Yesterday's FOMC statement may have caused traders to change their outlook for when the taper may begin

Is It Time For This Bull To Take a Break?
By Dave M - 10/29/2013
While the trend has been the bulls' best friend this year, it may be time to take a break...

If You Must Buy-and-Hold, Be Like Buffett
By Dave M - 10/28/2013
Although we believe in an active approach to investing, there are ways to use buy-and-hold successfully over the long-term...

Active vs. Passive: You're Kidding, Right?
By Dave M - 10/25/2013
Now that the bulls have been on a roll for a few years, the debate over passive vs. active investing strategy is all the rage again. However, in my humble opinion, there isn't even a question...

Have The Worries Returned To Broad and Wall?
By Dave M - 10/24/2013
Stocks are overbought and some worry appears to be returning to Wall Street. The question is if they will last...

A Worrisome Sign or Simply Computer Folly?
By Dave M - 10/23/2013
The question of the day is if Tuesday's volatile intraday action involving some high flyers is a worrisome sign for the bulls...

The Next Driving Force Could Be: Performance Anxiety
By Dave M - 10/22/2013
Now that the D.C. drama has been placed on the back burner for a couple months, the next driver of the stock market could be...

Are Stocks Overvalued Yet?
By Dave M - 10/21/2013
With the S&P 500 sitting at an all-time high, the bears contend that stocks are overvalued and due for a fall. So, this morning we ask the question, do they have a point?

The Key To Success In The Stock Market Is...
By Dave M - 10/18/2013
Every once in a while (especially after a particularly emotional period in the market) it can pay to step back at remember what the goal of this game is...

Back To Normal Now, Right?
By Dave M - 10/17/2013
Now that the Congress has done the right thing (after all other possibilities were exhausted, of course), will stocks get back to normal?

Here's The Key: The Deadline Isn't Really The Deadline
By Dave M - 10/16/2013
Although there is a great deal of anxiety regarding the October 17 deadline, in reality the actual deadline for a default is different...

Hold The Champagne, They're Just Getting Started
By Dave M - 10/15/2013
Traders expect a deal to get done very soon in Washington, D.C.. However, before you reach for the champagne, it is important to understand...

Understanding The Gov't Crisis Play Book
By Dave M - 10/11/2013
So far at least, traders appear to be employing the Government Crisis Play Book...

A Sell Signal Worth Paying Attention To
By Dave M - 10/10/2013
While we wait for the politicians in Washington to get their act together, we should note that an important sell signal has been flashed by one of our favorite long-term indicators...

Ben Bernanke Can't Be Happy
By Dave M - 10/9/2013
After everything the Federal Reserve has done to keep the U.S. economy moving forward since 2008, Ben Bernanke can't be too happy about the idea of a self-inflicted slowdown...

It's Getting Ugly Out There, Right?
By Dave M - 10/8/2013
The press continues to tell us that it's getting ugly out there. But is it really?

The Administration Who Cried Wolf
By Dave M - 10/7/2013
Now that the shutdown has gone beyond a day or two, it will likely continue at least until the debt ceiling is hit in mid-October

Investors: Remember The Sequester!
By Dave M - 10/3/2013
While the games in Washington continue, investors may want to remember the lessons learned from the last go-round in D.C.

What Do The Cycles Say About October?
By Dave M - 10/2/2013
With the market back in a schizophrenic mode, we thought this would be an excellent time to review what the cycle projections have to say about October

By the Numbers: Turning Out the Lights in D.C.
By Dave M - 10/1/2013
With a government shutdown now official, it's time to see how such events have impacted both stocks and the economy historically...

D.C. Antics Aside, The Stock Market Environment Is...
By Dave M - 9/30/2013
Although traders are showing their displeasure with the ongoing political antics in Washington this morning, the overall stock market environment is...

Remember, Do Nothing, Absolutely Nothing Until...
By Dave M - 9/27/2013
Traders appear to be implementing an age-old Wall Street-ism at this time as the deadline for a government shutdown looms...

Traders: We Won't Get Fooled Again
By Dave M - 9/26/2013
Traders appear to be taking a cautious stance at this time as no one wants to get fooled again by the shenanigans in Washington...

Does This Market Have Serious Issues?
By Dave M - 9/25/2013
Stocks have fallen for four consecutive sessions and futures are pointing lower again here in the U.S. So, does this market have serious issues to worry about?

Putting Fear Back In The Mix
By Dave M - 9/24/2013
With traders fretting over when the Fed will begin to taper and what may happen in Washington, it appears that some fear has returned to the corner of Broad and Wall.

What Are the Charts Telling Us Now?
By Dave M - 9/23/2013
It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words. So this morning we'll take a look at the message from the charts...

Bernanke Taking No Chances
By Dave M - 9/19/2013
Despite all the "taper talk" over the past few months, Ben Bernanke is not taking any chances with the economic recovery....

Is The Taper Priced In?
By Dave M - 9/18/2013
The question of the day is how the stock market will react to the Fed announcement today. For clues, we took a look at how prices have reacted over the last few months...

Identifying Why Stocks Do What They Do
By Dave M - 9/17/2013
If the market makes a big move, do you care why?

Has a New Secular Bull Market Been Born?
By Dave M - 9/16/2013
While we won't know for sure for several years, the argument can be made that we may be seeing the beginning of a new secular bull market...

How To Stop "Diworsifying" Your Portfolio
By Dave M - 9/12/2013
As we have discussed, a diversified portfolio is struggling mightily this year. Here's one approach designed to help you avoid "diworsifying" your long-term portfolio holdings...

Diversification (Is) For Dummies
By Dave M - 9/11/2013
Most investors view portfolio diversification as a smart way to play. However, this year the strategy isn't working worth a darn...

Have the Bears Missed Their Opportunity (Again)?
By Dave M - 9/10/2013
It is so easy to be negative on the stock market at the present time. But have the bears missed their opportunity?

What Do The Cycles Say About September?
By Dave M - 9/9/2013
It is said that September is the cruelest month, so we thought we should see if the cycles confirm...

Has the Fed Lost Control?
By Dave M - 9/3/2013

History Shows Bears May Continue To Be Frustrated
By Dave M - 8/5/2013
History shows that strong gains in the stock market through the first seven months of the year tends to lead to...

Using The Wrong Word Again
By Dave M - 8/2/2013
I did something really dumb yesterday. I poked a bear. In all honesty, I didn't intend to. But apparently I used the "W" word a little too often...

A Really, Really Bad Idea
By Dave M - 8/1/2013
So far this year, listening to the bears has been a really, really bad idea...

While We Wait: Let's Talk Strategy
By Dave M - 7/31/2013
With the market clearly waiting on the data, the Fed and Friday's jobs report, I've decided to spend my pixels this morning talking something that is dear to my heart - investing strategy...

Fun With Numbers: The New GDP Formula
By Dave M - 7/30/2013
Most economists have been looking for the GDP growth to remain weak in the second quarter. However, this week it was announced that the government is messing with the numbers...

Thank You Mr. Draghi
By Dave M - 7/29/2013
It was a year ago Friday that ECB President "Super Mario" Draghi stopped the European Debt Crisis dead in its tracks...

Conversations From The Halls
By Dave M - 7/25/2013
I had the opportunity to chat with a handful of medical professionals over the past week and naturally the conversation eventually shifted to the stock market...

The Great (Valuation) Debate - Part III
By Dave M - 7/17/2013
With all eyes on Ben Bernanke this morning, we thought this would be a good time to finish up our series on stock market valuations...

The Great (Valuation) Debate - Part II
By Dave M - 7/16/2013
With stocks clearly in an uptrend (and due for a pullback), we thought this would be a good time to continue our look at valuations...

The Great (Valuation) Debate - Part I
By Dave M - 7/15/2013
Valuation, like beauty, lies in the eyes of the beholder. Today we take a look at three P/E ratios that can help us get a handle on this great debate...

Lesson Learned: Price Cannot Deviate From Itself
By Dave M - 7/12/2013
One of the key lessons to learn about the business of the stock market is that unlike so many indicators, price cannot deviate from itself...

Learning to Say, "It's Not What I Do"
By Dave M - 7/11/2013
One of the toughest things investors need to learn is to be able to say "It's Not What I Do"...

The Macro View From 30,000 Feet - Part III
By Dave M - 7/10/2013
This morning, we will finish up our review of the current macro view of global markets...

The Macro View From 30,000 Feet - Part II
By Dave M - 7/9/2013
This morning, we will continue with our executive summary of the major "global macro" categories by taking a look at some of the foreign markets including Europe, China, and the Emerging Markets.

The Macro View From 30,000 Feet
By Dave M - 7/8/2013
This morning we begin a series that takes a look at the world from a macro point of view...

Will The Fireworks Continue On Wall Street?
By Dave M - 7/5/2013
The European markets put on quite a show on Thursday. The question of the day is if U.S. markets will follow suit...

Cycle Update: I've Got Some Good News and Some Bad News
By Dave M - 7/2/2013
With the market still volatile and a holiday week upon us, it seemed like a good time to check in with our cycle composite projections for July...

Understanding The 'Fast Money' Games
By Dave M - 7/1/2013
Understanding "the trade" that the fast money is focusing on can help one stay in tune with the overall market environment...

I'd Like a "V" Please
By Dave M - 6/28/2013
With the bulls having put in a stop Monday, the question now becomes whether the bottom will take the shape of a "v" or a "w"...

That's My Story and I'm Sticking To It
By Dave M - 6/27/2013
Although things can change at the drop of an algo these days, I'm of the mind that the current rebound represents a correction of the correction...

So, Is Good News Good or Bad?
By Dave M - 6/26/2013
With bond yields soaring, the question of the day whether good economic news is a good or bad thing for stocks...

All About The Bonds?
By Dave M - 6/25/2013
If you are looking for what is driving the intraday swings in the stock market these days, you need look no farther than the bond market (well, and China)...

A Not-So Subtle Change
By Dave M - 6/24/2013
In case you haven't noticed, I've recently made a modest adjustment to the label I place on the current market environment...

I Don't "Know" Anything...
By Dave M - 6/21/2013
I am a firm believer in following a disciplined strategy in the markets. While this approach can and does make you look/feel foolish at times, the key is to understand that no one "knows" what is going to happen next...

Action Speaks Louder Than Words
By Dave M - 6/20/2013
Our view at this stage is that the market action itself may be more important than the words of Ben Bernanke. Remember, it's not the news, but rather...

The State of the Speculation
By Dave M - 6/18/2013
Monday's market action was a perfect example of the state of the speculation surrounding...

Will We Be Talking Taper Soon?
By Dave M - 6/17/2013
The question of the day is if the Fed is going to start 'talking taper' this week with regard to their current QE programs.

The Return of the 'Hilsenrumor'
By Dave M - 6/14/2013
After a fairly long absence, it appears that the 'Hilsenrumor' made a significant comeback yesterday afternoon...

Do The Bears Have a Case?
By Dave M - 6/12/2013
Although stocks look to rebound at the open, we wanted to examine the question of if the bears have a case for lower prices...

What Do The Cycles Say for June?
By Dave M - 6/11/2013
The argument as to what comes next for stocks falls along party lines at this point. So it's time to check in with our cycle composite...

The Price of 'Perfection'
By Dave M - 6/10/2013
If one is looking for any semblance of "perfection" in the stock market, there is a price that must be paid...

Looking For The Line In The Sand
By Dave M - 6/6/2013
The price action of the past two and one-half weeks makes it clear that stocks have entered a correctional phase of some sort. The next logical question, of course, becomes how low will the pullback go?

Don't Fear The Taper
By Dave M - 6/5/2013
There is an awful lot of talk about "the taper" these days. It appears that good economic news would increase the likelihood of the Fed cutting back on their QE program. However, we're of the mind that...

Live and Learn - Part II
By Dave M - 6/4/2013
This morning, I thought I'd provide a follow up to the trade order dilemma posed by using "at the close" orders with ETFs. Our new plan is to...

What's Your Sell Strategy Going To Be?
By Dave M - 6/3/2013
The bulls have enjoyed a solid run over the past seven months. However, all good things come to an end at some point. So...

Live and Learn, I Guess
By Dave M - 5/31/2013
I was forced to utter the words "live and learn" after a frustrating turn of events on a trade this week...

Knowing Which Tools To Use (And When)
By Dave M - 5/30/2013
The bears continue to yammer on about the overbought condition and excessive sentiment. However, it is important to understand...

Can Yields and Stocks Continue To Rise Together?
By Dave M - 5/29/2013
Don't look now fans, but bond market yields are spiking again. This means the question of the day is yields and stock prices can continue to head the same direction...

Has The Panic Returned?
By Dave M - 5/24/2013
All rallies over the past three years have been halted in a rather violent fashion as trader panic took over. So, is the panic returning to the corner of Broad and Wall?

To Taper Or Not To Taper?
By Dave M - 5/23/2013
The question of the day on Wednesday was what to make of the market's sudden and violent reversal. In case you were out on the golf course, stocks rallied in the morning and then turned significantly lower in response to...

Every Day Should Be Tuesday
By Dave M - 5/22/2013
Another Tuesday... Another green close. For those of you keeping score at home, this marks the 19th consecutive Tuesday that the S&P has finished higher.

Is It Time To Hit The Pause Button?
By Dave M - 5/21/2013
Make no mistake about it; the bulls are on a roll. However, there are a couple of indications that it might be time to hit the pause button on this rally.

Thoughts From Planes, Trains and Automobiles
By Dave M - 5/20/2013
One of the great things about traveling in Europe is that the difference in time zones gives you time to think...

Cycles Say Not to "Sell in May and Go Away" This Year
By Dave M - 5/8/2013
Since I've got some time on my hands and the markets appear to be behaving themselves, I thought I'd update everyone on the state of our cycle projections

What Separates The Pros From The Public
By Dave M - 5/2/2013
After spending the better part of the last four days talking with investment professionals who utilize an "active" approach to the markets, I've come to the conclusion that there is one thing that separates these folks from the public...

That Might Be Quick
By Rich - 5/2/2013
Stock need to break the technical chains

Fed Driven Rally or U-turn Coming
By Rich - 5/1/2013
Will the Fed be friend or foe for stocks today?

This Indecision is Bugging Me
By Rich - 4/29/2013
Stocks need to run free

Diamonds are a Bulls Best Friend
By Rich - 4/26/2013
A tale of two patterns

The Argument
By Dave M - 4/26/2013
With the market failing at last week's highs the bears argue that a double-top is forming. However, the key question for me is if the "money sloshing around" argument can outweigh the macro worries...

Easy Money is All That Matters
By Rich - 4/25/2013
Wall Street Rides on Easy Dollars

Does The 'Hack Crash' Tell Us Anything?
By Dave M - 4/25/2013
Although algo driven dives occur frequently in individual stocks, the public and press seem obsessed with Tuesday's "hack crash" caused by a false AP tweet. But the real question is if the event tells us anything about the market?

Lower Lows Coming?
By Rich - 4/24/2013
The race for the control of the heart of the market could be on

So Bad News is Good News Again?
By Dave M - 4/24/2013
To be sure, there are times when the market's "logic" makes little sense to anyone not familiar with the way the game is played. Cutting to the chase, this would appear to be one of those times.

What to Watch Withe the Current Rally
By Rich - 4/23/2013
Will stocks step up or step down

Thoughts on Gov't Debt and The Expected Bear in Bonds
By Dave M - 4/23/2013
A great many investors expect interest rates to rise at some point in the future, triggering what could be a massive bear market in bonds. However, given the state of government debt around the globe...

The Brave New World of Day-Trading?
By Dave M - 4/22/2013
This morning we look at the state of the charts and posit a theory on why stocks have had little memory from one day to the next lately...

Will It Be Enough This Time?
By Dave M - 4/19/2013
The question of the day is if the current pullback will be enough to discount the slowdown picture being painted by the recent economic reports...

Will The Dow Make it Three for Three
By Rich - 4/18/2013
The NASDAQ and S&P are Under Water, Will the Dow Join

Are The Charts Telling The Real Story?
By Dave M - 4/18/2013
The story being told by the charts of bond yields, copper, coal, steel, etc would appear to be telling a story. However, we have to recognize that there may be something else involved right now...

As Easy as A-B-C?
By Rich - 4/17/2013
Is a classic pattern hitting the end of the line?

This Is About To Get Interesting
By Dave M - 4/17/2013
We had the run to all-time highs, the shocking pullback, and the requisite bounce higher. So, now it gets interesting...

The Violence Returns
By Dave M - 4/16/2013
First and foremost, our hearts and prayers go out to those in the Boston area as well as anyone even remotely involved with the race yesterday. To be honest, it is difficult to focus on anything other than the attack right now and frankly it doesn't seem appropriate to be spending time on such trivial matters as the movements in the stock market after such an event. However, the cold reality is that life goes on and the markets will open for business in a few hours.

Slow Start but Strong End
By Rich - 4/15/2013
A slow start shouldn't last too long if profits are strong

The Liquidity Trade
By Dave M - 4/15/2013
One of the key arguments to both the bulls and the bears these days is the "liquidity trade." The bears argue...

It's Just Silliness, Right?
By Dave M - 4/12/2013
The bears appear to be getting desperate as one "fast money" trader called the market's rally so far this year "silliness" on CNBC yesterday. However, the key to this game...

Up, Up, Up an Away
By Rich - 4/11/2013
Can anything slowdown the Bernanke Bull Market

Wake Up and Smell The Breakout
By Dave M - 4/11/2013
A headline on a prominent website said that the S&P chart points to a correction. Given Wednesday's breakout, this was news to me so I went looking for the problem...

Where Are Those Bears, Anyway?
By Dave M - 4/10/2013
After Friday's disastrous jobs report, it appeared that the bears had the upper hand. However, our furry friends appear to have fumbled the ball and have gone missing ever since...

A Trend is a Trend
By Rich - 4/9/2013
March and April have not been friendly for the past four years

Man vs. The Machines - The State of HFT
By Dave M - 4/9/2013
I had the distinct pleasure of being a panelist on a roundtable discussion Sunday evening on the subject of high frequency trading (aka HFT). Surprisingly, I came away feeling upbeat about the state of HFT...

Stuck in the Middle With You
By Rich - 4/8/2013
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right

Everyone Expects A Correction. So What Do The Cycles Say?
By Dave M - 4/8/2013
Just about everyone in the game right now is anticipating a correction in the stock market. Most believe that it's not really a question of if the market will pull back from its recent all-time highs, but a matter of how bad the decline will be. So, we thought it would be good to check in with our cycle projections for April...

Things Are Looking Dicey. What Do The Models Have To Say?
By Dave M - 4/5/2013
The S&P has been going nowhere fast for the past few weeks. However there are a number of negative divergences that don't portend good things to come. So, we thought it would be a good time to check in with our market models...

Withering Roots (Again)?
By Dave M - 4/4/2013
The question of the day is if the recent spate of weaker than expected economic reports means the economy is about to stall out again...

Bull Markets Don't Stop On a Dime
By Dave M - 4/3/2013
The thinking in the bear camp seems to be that the stock market rally is likely to stop on a dime and begin moving down in earnest at some point soon. However, history shows...

Monday's Suck Anyway
By Rich - 4/2/2013
Yesterday was no big deal

Top Hunting
By Rich - 4/1/2013
All systems say go, the question is how high.

Transitioning or Rotating?
By Rich - 3/27/2013
Wishy washy on Wall Street

The Keys to Watch
By Rich - 3/26/2013
What to look for in the days ahead

Goldilocks vs. The Three Bears
By Dave M - 3/25/2013
While the situation in Cyprus will likely dominate the market on this fine Monday morning, I have decided to step back across the pond and focus on the macroeconomic forces as it relates to the stock market here at home in this morning's missive.

It's Still All About The...
By Dave M - 3/22/2013
If there was any doubt as to what is driving the action in the stock market at the present time, Thursday's session should have erased it. In short, it's all Cyprus/Europe all the time. However, the key to the situation remains...

Closing in on the Finish Line?
By Rich - 3/21/2013
What jobs tell you about the economic cycle

"You Were Wrong!"
By Dave M - 3/21/2013
With the market still focused on the situation in Cyprus and traders waiting on this morning's plethora of economic data, I thought I'd share a conversation about being "wrong" in the market...

Stocks Back On the Horse Today
By Rich - 3/20/2013
From FedEx to the Fed

Bears Have To Be Disappointed So Far
By Dave M - 3/20/2013
Although the algos are moving the market on an intraday basis in reaction to each and every headline out of Cyprus, the bears have to be disappointed so far with their efforts.

QEverlasting and Kleptos
By Rich - 3/19/2013
World Bankers could upset investors in the next few days

What's The Deal in Cyprus?
By Dave M - 3/19/2013
It seems the game is all about Cyprus at the moment. As such, it is probably best to understand just what the heck is going on...

Thieves, Damn Thieves
By Rich - 3/18/2013
Bank Robbers in Suits to Hit your Portfolio?

Will Cyprus Be The Trigger? (And Ways To Play The Correction)
By Dave M - 3/18/2013
It is safe to say that all eyes are on Cyprus this morning as the proposed tax on savings accounts (10% on accounts over 100K euros and 6.75% on accounts below 100K) has brought the European debt crisis back into focus. The question is if this will be the trigger to the much anticipated correction...

Numerology of Stocks
By Rich - 3/15/2013
11 is a powerful number, are stocks about to go all numerology on us?

Does The Dow's Winning Streak Mean Anything?
By Dave M - 3/15/2013
The Dow is on a 10-day winning streak, which is something that hasn't happened since 1996. While the streak is impressive, the question is if such streaks have meant anything in the past...

The Rise of Consumers
By Rich - 3/14/2013
Are consumers ready to take over for Ben Bernanke?

What Could Go Wrong?
By Dave M - 3/14/2013
This morning I thought it might be a good idea to take a look around to see what might interrupt the bulls' current joyride to the upside. In other words, I'll be asking the question: What could go wrong from here?

Beliefs, Knowings and Lessons Learned
By Dave M - 3/13/2013
I probably need to issue a word of warning about this morning's meandering market missive. In light of the fact that I have run out of ways to say "The trend is your friend" and "Don't fight the tape," I'm going to go off the reservation and talk about lessons learned from Wall Street's school of hard knocks.

Self-Fulfilling Sell-off?
By Rich - 3/12/2013
Stocks could be headed for some trouble, maybe not today, but soon.

Is It Still Okay to Buy?
By Dave M - 3/12/2013
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the current rally is how quickly the view of the market can change. Fear and loathing seems to have quickly been replaced by fear of missing out.

Wash, Rinse, and Repeat
By Rich - 3/11/2013
The routine has been for Monday to be soft, and then make it up

My Market Thesis: No New Crisis Equals...
By Dave M - 3/11/2013
With the DJIA at fresh new all-time highs, all the major indices sporting new 52-week highs, and the S&P having finished in the green 8 of the last 9 sessions (and the last 6 in a row), it is obvious to anyone with an open mind that the bulls are in charge at the present time. My current thesis is...

Trend Surfing
By Rich - 3/8/2013
Trend Surfing

A Very Large Wall of Worry?
By Dave M - 3/8/2013
I completely understand why the bears are looking for a meaningful pullback to begin sometime soon. However, there is a very old saying on Wall Street that may apply here...

Continue to Flutter Along
By Rich - 3/7/2013
Continue to Flutter Along

Looking For A Market Top Indicator?
By Dave M - 3/7/2013
Now that the DJIA has reached a new all-time high and the S&P 500 is getting close to doing so as well, it seems that the big topic in the press these days is picking the top. If you must play this game, here's an indicator worth watching...

Conventional Wisdom
By Rich - 3/6/2013
Conventional Wisdom

Worried About The Rally? Join The Club.
By Dave M - 3/6/2013
If you find yourself worried about the current joyride to the upside and a brand new all-time high for the DJIA is causing your acrophobia to kick in, join the club. Although the Dow is at record highs, this is one of the most unappreciated, mistrusted, and dare I say, hated rallies I've ever witnessed.

Trying for Three for Three
By Rich - 3/5/2013
The markets could take a run at their 52-week highs today, leading with the Dow and then the S&P

A Year Without A Crisis Is Like...
By Dave M - 3/5/2013
Anyone new to the business in the last five years has only seen a stock market driven by a series of crisis. When asked what the market might look like without a crisis, I replied...

What's Working Now
By Rich - 3/4/2013
Stocks could start the week in the mildly red columns, but the Dow and S&P

It's The Economy, Stupid (Or Not!)
By Dave M - 3/4/2013
Most investors believe that James Carville's famous line suggesting that the economy is the key focus holds true for the stock market as well. However, you may be very surprised to learn....

Up Two and Buy Is What You Do?
By Rich - 3/1/2013
Stocks look as if they are going to put it in reverse to end the week. So far...

What Do The Cycles Say for March?
By Dave M - 3/1/2013
With the market seeming to have no memory from one moment to next, I decided to take a look at what our cycles project for the month of March...

NASDAQ v Dow in Technical Tug-of-War
By Rich - 2/28/2013
GDP moved back above water, stretching to a gain of 0.1% on the first revision; however, it’s still...

What Did We Learn From The Volatility?
By Dave M - 2/28/2013
The recent volatility has certainly been interesting. First, fear of Europe hit the market hard again but since has been replaced by renewed optimism. All within five days. So, what did we learn from the recent action?

50-day Still Not Too Far Away
By Rich - 2/27/2013
With the 50-day Still Not Too Far Away, our plan is to...

Which Theme Will Win Out?
By Dave M - 2/27/2013
While the recent uptrend appears to have ended, the question of the day is which theme will emerge as the driving force going forward.

Operating in Safe Mode
By Rich - 2/26/2013
I can’t help but see the 50-day moving averages acting as magnets for the indexes. In the past,

Here We Go Again!
By Dave M - 2/26/2013
For the fourth year in a row, the bulls managed to produce a strong rally to start the new year off on the right foot. But if you will recall, the early rallies of the last three years were thwarted by the European debt crisis. Here we go again...

What to Watch In the Week Ahead
By Rich - 2/25/2013
Wall Street sure seems unfazed by the reduction in the growth rate of government spending, not actual cuts to the amount of spending.

Will The Worry Stick?
By Dave M - 2/25/2013
Our furry friends in the Bear camp tried their darndest to play the worry card last week. And given the fact that the S&P 500 wound up with the first losing week of the year, I guess we will have to admit that they succeeded to some degree. The question, of course is will the worry stick?

Let Me Get This Straight
By Dave M - 2/22/2013
To be honest, making sense of the stock market action (which is the primary objective of my oftentimes meandering morning market missive) can be challenging at times. This week's action is a prime example...

Another Day or Two of Red
By Rich - 2/21/2013
We are probably going to have another off day. Looking back at previous days like yesterday’s...

One and Done? Or...
By Dave M - 2/21/2013
The bears argue that "this is it!" That yesterday's algo-induced shellacking was the start of something big. Perhaps this will be the case. However, there were other factors at work in the market yesterday...

I Like The Odds
By Dave M - 2/20/2013
While there is always a lot of talk about the so-called "January Barometer" there is some new research on "strong January's" that warrants our attention this morning...

Waiting On the NASDAQ to Declare
By Rich - 2/19/2013
Asian markets took a hit while you were sleeping, and EU indexes are green with Germany and France putting in work, up more than 1% on the day.

State of Disbelief
By Dave M - 2/19/2013
Stocks have been on a roll lately. In the process, the market has become overbought and sentiment indicators are reaching extreme levels. As such many traders don't believe it is possible for stocks to move higher from here...

Flat is the New Up
By Rich - 2/15/2013
Another slow start appears to be where Wall Street is headed at the opening bell.

A Sign Of The Times?
By Dave M - 2/15/2013
The question of the day is if Warren Buffett's move to purchase HJ Heinz is a sign of the times...

Sputter Before the Spout?
By Rich - 2/14/2013
Sputter Before the Spout?

Could A New All-Time High Be Significant?
By Dave M - 2/14/2013
For the past 12+ years, new highs for the stock market have been met with nasty declines. However, history shows that this may be the exception rather than the rule...

The NASDAQ Needs to Get Going
By Rich - 2/13/2013
The NASDAQ Needs to Get Going

Slow Start to a Green Ending?
By Rich - 2/12/2013
Slow Start to a Green Ending?

A Hard Lesson To Learn
By Dave M - 2/11/2013
In the mid-1990's I found myself in the permabear camp. But in the process I learned a very valuable lesson that may be applicable today...

Snow Job
By Rich - 2/8/2013
Snow Job

Yep, We're Back To That...
By Dave M - 2/8/2013
With the stock market stuck in a tight trading range at the present time, traders appear to be turning to a familiar trade to occupy their time...

Should I Stay or Should I Go?
By Rich - 2/7/2013
Should I Stay or Should I Go?

It May Be Frustrating, But...
By Dave M - 2/7/2013
It is said that Ms. Market will at times do whatever it takes to frustrate as many investors as she possibly can. And my guess is that both teams have reasons to be frustrated these days. But...

A Tennis Match Breaks Out in the Middle of a Rally
By Rich - 2/6/2013
A Tennis Match Breaks Out in the Middle of a Rally

Deja vu All Over Again (Or Not)?
By Dave M - 2/6/2013
For the last three years, all of the major stock market rallies have ended abruptly courtesy of the European debt crisis that knows no end. So, will the current rally suffer a similar fate?

NASDAQ Points of Support
By Rich - 2/5/2013
NASDAQ Points of Support

Friendly Trends Despite Unfriendly News
By Rich - 1/31/2013
Friendly Trends Despite Unfriendly News

I Don't Like Forecasts, But...
By Dave M - 1/31/2013
While I'm not a big fan of forecasting, our cycle work suggests that things could get ugly in February...

Bulls Don't Mind?
By Rich - 1/30/2013
Bulls Don't Mind?

Two Little Words Explain Everything
By Dave M - 1/30/2013
With stocks advancing on a daily basis so far in 2013, many are wondering why. I've come up with two little words to explain it all...

My Fingers Are Crossed
By Dave M - 1/29/2013
The key to the current market is to recognize that the environment may be changing.

Buy the Dip Coming?
By Rich - 1/28/2013
Buy the Dip Coming

The Bulls Are Rolling, But...
By Dave M - 1/28/2013
The bulls are clearly on a roll with the market having closed higher eleven of the last twelve sessions. And while we do need to recognize that markets can rumble longer and higher than you think possible at times, there are issues to be concerned about.

The Correction Is Coming, Right?
By Dave M - 1/25/2013
Most every trader in the game expects a correction to start at any moment. However, this morning we look at the overbought condition and opine that anything more than a garden variety pullback may not yet be in the cards...

Apple Destruction Will Fade If...
By Rich - 1/24/2013
Apple Destruction Will Fade If...

What's Your Frame of Reference?
By Dave M - 1/24/2013
Stocks have been in a secular bear market for the last 13 years. As such, unless an investor has been at it for more than 15 years, they've really only seen one type of market...

NASDAQ Triple Play and Stocks Go on their Way
By Rich - 1/23/2013
NASDAQ Triple Play and Stocks Go on their Way

Looking Forward To The Next Decline Because...
By Dave M - 1/23/2013
While the bulls are clearly on a roll at the present time, just about everyone in the game agrees that stocks are now overbought and susceptible to a pullback. However, we shouldn't fear a decline at this stage as it may tell us a lot about the big picture...

What's The Next Big Worry?
By Dave M - 1/22/2013
It seems the bears always have a reason to worry lately. First it was Europe, then the fiscal cliff, and now the debt ceiling. But worrying has cost investors a pretty penny...

Talking My Book (Again)
By Dave M - 1/18/2013
One of the biggest problems many investors (professional and individual alike) encounter is not recognizing that the market environment has changed. As such, many wind up "fighting the last war" in their strategy...

The Line In The Sand
By Dave M - 1/17/2013
With the market having closed at nearly the same spot for five consecutive sessions, it appears that traders have a clearly defined line in the sand to work from...

Since We're Still Waiting...
By Dave M - 1/16/2013
Since we've still got some time on our hands before a theme develops from the latest earnings parade...

Waiting On The Next Theme To Develop
By Dave M - 1/15/2013
Stocks have actually done very little since the afirst day of the year. As such, we're of the mind that traders are waiting on the next theme to develop.

In Search of a One-Armed Analyst
By Dave M - 1/14/2013
A great many investors commit their capital to the markets according to their macro view of the world. However, this environment is clearly a "on the one hand, yet on the other" situation...

It's A Good Overbought Condition
By Dave M - 1/11/2013
The bears have been contending lately that stocks must pull back due to the fact that the market is currently overbought. However, our indicators tell us that this is a "good" overbought condition and a buy signal.

What To Expect From The Earnings Parade
By Dave M - 1/9/2013
It is important to know what analysts/traders are looking for from the current earnings season. This morning we review the expectations for earnings, revenues, and guidance...

What Do The Cycles Say for 2013?
By Dave M - 1/8/2013
While long-time readers know that I simply abhor the predictions game, it seems that one of the most popular things I write about has to do with the historical cycles of the stock market. This year's cycle composite tells us...

Is Good News Still Good For Stocks?
By Dave M - 1/7/2013
With traders fearing that the Fed could take awaya the punch bowl sooner rather than later, the question of the day is if good economic news is still good for stock prices...

Deal or No Deal? Does It Matter?
By Dave M - 12/28/2012
The question of the day continues to be whether or not lawmakers in Washington will send the U.S. economy over the fiscal cliff. But does the current decision really matter?

What's Wrong With This Picture?
By Dave M - 12/21/2012
Although the market remains focused on the fiscal cliff, this is the time of year where folks like to look ahead to next year...

On The Wrong Track? Or...
By Dave M - 12/20/2012
Don't look now fans, but the fiscal cliff negotiations might suddenly be on the wrong track.

It's Not About Who's Winning
By Dave M - 12/19/2012
There seems to be some misunderstanding about how the market views the fiscal cliff negotiations. The bottom line is Ms. Market doesn't give a hoot about which side is winning, only that ...

Now For Some Good News
By Dave M - 12/18/2012
The question of whether or not Monday's joyride to the upside will stick around for any length of time is, of course, subject to debate. However, it is always encouraging when the big green bars are accompanied by some good news. And some good news is exactly what we got yesterday.

Is The Secular Trend About to Change?
By Dave M - 12/17/2012
With the market focused almost entirely on the status of the fiscal cliff negotiations, I thought I'd use Monday's morning market missive to look at the bigger picture. So, we'll post the report a little early to give you time to ponder a potential change...

Trying To Put The Cliff In Perspective
By Dave M - 12/14/2012
It remains obvious to anyone watching the action that the fiscal cliff remains the focal point of the market. However, if we look at how the market actually works over time, stocks ought to be able to get past this...

Distractions and a Threshold-Based What?
By Dave M - 12/13/2012
It was so easy to become distracted by all the shiny objects in the market yesterday. Between Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfein, Ray Dalio, Wal-Mart's CEO, and Ben Bernanke, it was easy to forget about the fiscal cliff for a while...

How Many More?
By Dave M - 12/12/2012
The question of the day for me on Tuesday was how many more of these days where the algos react to every comment coming out of Washington are we going to have to endure again?

Will You Be Ready When Opportunity Knocks?
By Dave M - 12/11/2012
The real key to long-term success in the stock market is to be ready for the really big moves. The question, of course is how best to prepare yourself for the opportunities in the market

The Most Important Question You Have To Answer
By Dave M - 12/10/2012
Although Europe is back in the spotlight this morning, the U.S. stock market is basically waiting on a resolution to the fiscal cliff. As such, we will take a look at some investing strategy issues this fine morning...

Same Song, Different Year? Or...
By Dave M - 12/7/2012
The macro outlook for 2013 is eerily similar to what analysts "saw" for 2012 a year ago at this time....

Of Margin Calls and Rebel Yells
By Dave M - 12/6/2012
Wednesday's action in the stock market didn't look like much at the closing bell. However it was another roller coaster ride intraday - here's why...

Assuming Away The Can...
By Dave M - 12/5/2012
Three men are stranded on a deserted island with nothing to eat but several cans of beans. Unfortunately though, our castaways have no utensils and no tools. The question, of course, is how are the men going to eat the beans without a can opener?

At Least They're Talking, Right?
By Dave M - 12/4/2012
Although, the algos react to each and every comment coming out of Washington these days, I'm not so sure the bots are programmed to understand what is actually happening in our nation's capitol right now...

What's Coming and Has Been for the Indexes
By Rich - 11/30/2012
What's Coming and Has Been for the Indexes

Four Ways To Play The Cliff Game
By Dave M - 11/30/2012
In case it isn't blatantly obvious, the driver of the current stock market is anything and everything relating to the state of the fiscal cliff. Here are four ways to play the game right now...

You Can't Believe Everything You Read
By Rich - 11/29/2012
You Can't Believe Everything You Read

First, The Good News...
By Dave M - 11/28/2012
It appears that we've got one of those good news/bad news situations on our hands right now. The good news is that the U.S. stock market doesn't seem to care about...

Does It Really Have To Be So Complicated?
By Dave M - 11/27/2012
As I've said a time or twenty, I believe the key to long term success in the stock market revolves around the idea of staying in tune with the primary trend of the market. However, too many investors focus on the wrong thing...

Understanding The Way The Game Is Played
By Dave M - 11/26/2012
Stocks went on a joyride to the upside on Friday. However the reason behind the move wasn't obvious to even seasoned professionals...

Will It Ever End?
By Dave M - 11/21/2012
Don't look now fans, but it has been more than two years since the news/headline/rumor-driven environment began. The question is if this environment will end with the Fiscal Cliff...

Noodling On 'The Solution'
By Dave M - 11/20/2012
Stocks blasted higher yesterday as the players in Washington talked nice over the weekend. This created hope that a solution to 'the cliff' will come sooner rather than later. However...

Are The Bulls Growing Weary?
By Dave M - 11/19/2012
While stock market rallies tend to last longer than most can imagine and global markets are higher today, as I see it, the momentum of this bull market is definitely waning.

Are The Worries Warranted?
By Dave M - 11/16/2012
Unless you've been holed up in meetings for the past week, you are also likely aware of the fact that there are lots of worries in the market right now. Some of the worries are new and some are old. But to be sure, there are plenty of issues to fret about. And the question in my mind is if these worries are actually warranted from a big- picture standpoint.

Things Don't Matter Until They Do, But Then...
By Dave M - 11/9/2012
With the stock market having a bit of a problem lately, I've been getting a lot of questions about why stocks are going down. One complaint I'm hearing is that the so-called "worries" aren't anything new. To which I replied that things don't matter until they do, but then...

Much Ado About Nothing?
By Dave M - 11/8/2012
After more than a million television ads, countless dollars spent, and six months of worth of campaigning, nothing changed. So, in the immortal words of William Shakespeare, the entire election ordeal appears to have been much ado about nothing. In response...

Back To Business: Are Stocks Overvalued?
By Dave M - 11/7/2012
Since I flat-out refuse to waste your time with predictions about which stocks or sectors will/won't perform well based on the outcome of the Presidential election I thought we should get back to the business of reviewing stock valuations this morning...

Since We've Got Some Time On Our Hands...
By Dave M - 11/6/2012
Since we've got some time on our hands before we will know the winner of the Presidential race, we thought we'd take a look at stock market valuations from an objective point of view...

Is The Data Now Too Good?
By Dave M - 11/5/2012
In Thursday's missive, I wondered aloud if we might be seeing the beginnings of a shift in the trend of the economic data. On Friday, word was that this may indeed be happening and that the data may now be TOO good...

Time To Go The Other Way?
By Dave M - 11/2/2012
For much of the past seven weeks, stocks have been entrenched in what the bears will term a correction and/or what the bulls refer to as a consolidation phase. But after yesterday's data is it time to go the other way for a while?

Watching and Waiting For...
By Dave M - 11/1/2012
Yesterday's stock market action made it clear that traders were watching and waiting for the "big, bad events" (as well as a host of economic data) to occur before pushing the indices one way or another from their current range

A Frightful Outlook?
By Dave M - 10/31/2012
Anyone not residing on the east coast was given a couple of days to review the big picture macroeconomic outlook this week. Unfortunately, unless some things happen in Washington, the outlook is downright frightening...

I'm Surrounded
By Dave M - 10/26/2012
Maybe it is just the season, but it seems that I am currently surrounded by folks dressed in bear costumes. And I am surprised at just how negative everyone has become...

A Change In The Air
By Dave M - 10/25/2012
After a summer rally and a month-long consolidation phase, it now appears that there is a change in the air in terms of the market's overall environment. As such...

The Worries Return
By Dave M - 10/24/2012
Stocks enjoyed a strong run during the summer months as traders began looking ahead to better days. However, since mid-September, it appears that the environment has changed and that the worries have returned...

My Best (And Most Disappointing) Call
By Dave M - 10/23/2012
As I may have mentioned a time or two hundred, I don't make market calls. However, in January of 2009 I made a call relating to the expectations for the President's "stimulus" plan...

A Catalyst Found?
By Dave M - 10/22/2012
During the consolidation phase seen over the past month or so, the bears have not had much in the way of a catalyst to trigger the selling. That may have changed on Friday...

Can Stocks Survive The Earnings Slowdown?
By Dave M - 10/19/2012
After the current string of high profile earnings disappointments so far this quarter, the question of the day is if the market can survive the slowdown in earnings growth...

A Major Top?
By Dave M - 10/18/2012
The bears are nothing if not consistent these days. Just this week, one of my self-proclaimed uber-bear friends suggested that this market reminds him of 2007 and that a major top is taking shape...

Does Spain Trump Earnings, Fiscal Cliff, Etc?
By Dave M - 10/17/2012
After twenty-one days of lousy intraday stock market action, the bulls appear to have found their long lost mojo this week. The reason behind the change in the market's tune appears to be...

Blame It On The Algos, Or...
By Dave M - 10/16/2012
The recent economic data hasn't been half bad. However, traders have been selling into most any green on the screen. Thus, the question becomes what is behind the negativity?

A Very Important Decision
By Dave M - 10/15/2012
I am not a terribly political person and I don't like to bring my personal views into my writing (something I also won't do this morning). However, this election requires voters to make a very important decision from an economic standpoint...

Is The Sky Falling Again?
By Dave M - 10/12/2012
With stocks having had five, yes five, straight gosh awful sessions where it seems that every green bar on my one-minute chart of the S&P 500 was instantly met with another burst of selling, you can't be blamed if your angst level is rising. This is what corrective phases do to your psyche.

A New Trading Outlook
By Rich - 10/11/2012
A New Trading Outlook

No Catalyst Needed
By Dave M - 10/11/2012
The question I've been asked most frequently this week is, Why are stocks going down when there hasn't been any real catalyst to drive prices lower?

Let's Talk About HFT
By Dave M - 10/10/2012
Yesterday morning's sudden dive in the stock market was a great example of HFT (high frequency trading) in action. Normally when the S&P dives 11 points there is some news, a comment from Europe, or at least a rumor...

The Next Phase Is Coming
By Dave M - 10/9/2012
I am going to argue that this year's stock market can be divided up into three or four distinctly different phases so far and that the current "sloppy period" will wind up being a prelude to the final phase of the year.

Waiting On The Numbers
By Dave M - 10/4/2012
Stocks have gone largely sideways for the better part of the last three weeks. My guess is that traders are simply sitting on their hands while waiting on the numbers...

Are Traders Preparing For The Worst?
By Dave M - 10/3/2012
Although the bears have very little to show for their efforts, there is no denying the fact that the intraday action has been lousy lately. This leads me to ask the question...

Does It Really Matter Anymore?
By Dave M - 10/2/2012
The bears were quick (I mean, VERY quick) to inform me that Monday's tape action was exceptionally bad. There was talk of a key reversal day, which tends to be a precursor of bad things to come in the ensuing days. And I will agree that the "action" certainly has not been encouraging of late. However, my question this fine morning is: Does it really matter?

Do You Have What It Takes To Get Rich Quick?
By Dave M - 10/1/2012
It is probably a safe assumption that most people invest in the stock market with a goal of creating wealth (i.e. getting rich) over time. And I'm guessing that a fair number of people - especially those seeking investment guidance on the internet - would prefer to get rich sooner rather than later. But unfortunately...

The Right Stuff?
By Dave M - 9/28/2012
Spain appeared to say all the right stuff yesterday when presenting its budget proposal for the coming year. However, whether or not corporate American can do the same is another story...

One Part Good + Two Parts Bad = Be Careful
By Rich - 9/27/2012
One Part Good + Two Parts Bad = Be Careful

It Gets Tougher From Here
By Dave M - 9/27/2012
Earlier in the week, we explored the arguments from both the bull and bear camps. However, what was missing is the idea that things might get tougher from here - for both teams. Here's why...

Are We Seeing A Character Change?
By Dave M - 9/26/2012
The question I was asked a time or three after the close yesterday was whether or not the market's "character" had suddenly changed...

And Now A Word From...
By Dave M - 9/25/2012
Yesterday morning we spent a fair amount of time listening to the arguments presented by the bear camp. So to be fair, this morning we'll take a look at what those in the bull camp are espousing...

What a Minute, Stocks Can Go Down, Too?
By Rich - 9/24/2012
Buy the dip or run the other way?

A Visit To The Bear Den
By Dave M - 9/24/2012
While I tend to take an opinion-agnostic stance when dealing with the stock market, I thought it might be a good idea to sit down with one of my colleagues who just happens to be uber bearish at the present time, in an attempt to objectively consider the bear case these days.

It's Tough To Get In
By Dave M - 9/21/2012
To be sure, it has been difficult to get new positions invested in this market. This morning, we look at a couple of ideas on how to work with the current environment...

Another Cycle to Consider
By Dave M - 9/20/2012
With the market consolidating recent gains, I've had some time this week to look at historical cycles...

What Are The Cycles Saying Now?
By Dave M - 9/19/2012
While trying to predict what the market is going to do next is a fool's errand, we've found that the market tends to follow a composite of cycles eerily well at times. So...

A Signal Not To Be Ignored
By Dave M - 9/18/2012
Although the DJIA finished lower Monday for the fourteenth time out of the last fifteen weeks, I found some good news when running through my weekly review of our favorite stock market indicators

The Need To Be Right
By Dave M - 9/17/2012
In my humble opinion, the difference between those that are truly successful in the investment game over the long-term and those that have a tendency to eventually blow up their portfolios is the ability to deal with human emotions...

Don't Miss The Fed!
By Dave M - 9/13/2012
Most experienced traders are familiar with the age-old Wall Street saw, "Don't fight the Fed." However, I'm guessing that most investors aren't aware of just how important "Fed days" are to the market.

Draghi Didn't Solve Europe's Problems Did He?
By Dave M - 9/7/2012
The bears contend that Mario Draghi's new bond buying plan won't fix Europe's problems. And while more bond buying won't improve the debt situation, it just might fix the stock market's problems regarding Europe...

Where On Earth are the Values?
By Dave M - 9/5/2012
While we wait on the ECB, the Fed, the jobs report etc, we thought it would be a good idea to check in on market valuations around the world...

It's About The Fed, Greece (Yes, Really), And Well, The HFT
By Dave M - 8/23/2012
I am fairly confident that I have made my disdain of high frequency trading (HFT) fairly clear over the past year or so. But just in case I haven't, let me say that I firmly believe all the HFT is ruining the market for individual investors...

Are Divergences A Problem?
By Dave M - 8/21/2012
Although the bulls have been large and in charge for the better part of the past month, the bears tell us that growing divergences between the troops and the generals are a big problem...

It's Not The Economy, Stupid
By Dave M - 8/17/2012
The bears continue to point to the current weak economic data as a reason to be negative on the outlook for stock prices. However, it is important to understand...

Checking The Scoreboard
By Dave M - 8/16/2012
Only in the stock market game can players ignore the scoreboard entirely by using arguments and statistics to create their own reality.

Which Trend Will Resume?
By Dave M - 8/15/2012
The bottom line is that next-to nothing has happened to the S&P 500 over the past five sessions. However, it appears that there could be a trend developing...

Let's Review (Part III)...
By Dave M - 8/9/2012
Stocks appear to be treading water at current levels while waiting for the next batch of news/data/reports/rumors that would cause traders to adjust their views on the potential for additional stimulus from the ECB and/or the U.S. Federal Reserve. Thus, this is a perfect time to wrap up our review of our important market models...

Let's Review (Part II)...
By Dave M - 8/8/2012
Given that the dog days of summer appear to have set in at the corner of Broad and Wall, we will continue our reivew the current message from our important market models...

Let's Review...
By Dave M - 8/6/2012
With the market being driven primarily by headlines, comments, and rumors relating to anything and everything having to do with Europe these days, it is easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment and lose sight of the big picture environment. So this morning, we will spend a few minutes reviewing the message from our important market models...

Dragging Their Feet? Or...
By Dave M - 8/3/2012
Most analysts have attributed the recent selloff in stocks to the fact that both Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi appeared to be dragging their feet on additional stimulus measures this week. However it is important to note...

The "Bernanke Put" Will Return
By Dave M - 8/2/2012
If things get bad in the stock market, investors have always been able to rely on the Fed to come to the rescue. It looks like nothing has changed...

While We Wait...
By Dave M - 8/1/2012
In light of the fact that the world is waiting on word from the U.S. Federal Reserve today and then the ECB tomorrow as to whether or not more stimulative measures are going to be forthcoming, we thought it would be an appropriate time to review what to (and what not to) expect...

Will Europe Be Fixed?
By Dave M - 7/31/2012
Although the major stock indices remain within spitting distance of their high water marks for this bull market cycle, the bears contend that Europe won't be fixed and that stocks must...

Buying The Rumor(s)
By Dave M - 7/30/2012
It is fairly clear that traders of all colors, shapes, and sizes have been busy 'buying the rumor' that...

Is It Time To Pull The Trigger?
By Dave M - 7/25/2012
Although the news flow on Tuesday was nothing short of abysmal, stocks once again recovered nicely into the close on hope that the world's central bankers will soon pull the trigger on...

Mucking Up The Works
By Dave M - 7/23/2012
Up until Friday, the path forward appeared to be fairly clear for the bulls. The thinking was that stocks were a buy due to the likelihood of the Fed cavalry once again coming to the rescue of the economy. However, once again Europe appears to be mucking up the works...

It's Not About The Reason; It's About...
By Dave M - 7/19/2012
We're hearing a lot of people saying that stocks are rallying for the wrong reasons. However it is important to recognize that it's not about "the reason" right now; it's about...

The Path Forward
By Dave M - 7/18/2012
Although the macro view continues to be dour, Ben Bernanke's testimony yesterday suggested that the path forward may now be clear...

Diametrically Opposed
By Dave M - 7/17/2012
Differences of opinion between the stock market's opposing teams is normal. However, the degree to which the two teams differ on their views of the future is rarely this expansive...

Nobody Wants To Miss Out
By Dave M - 7/16/2012
Although the macro backdrop appears to be dysmal and has been worsening with each passing day, stocks have held up remarkably well lately. This tell us that nobody wants to miss out on...

Do The Bulls Still Have a Case?
By Dave M - 7/12/2012
With stocks down five consecutive days (and the early indications pointing to a sixth straight loss) the key question is if the bulls still have a leg to stand on...

Do You Have a Plan For This Market Environment?
By Dave M - 7/11/2012
Stock volatility is driving even the so-called "smart money" investors batty these days. Thus, the key question is if you have a plan to deal with this market?

The Real Solution to Europe's Woes
By Dave M - 7/10/2012
After more than two years of an ongoing crisis, the problems in Europe are well documented. However, the solution is relatively simple...

To QE or Not to QE?
By Dave M - 7/9/2012
In order to determine the next direction for the stock market, one need only decide the answer to a single question...

Are Pre-Emptive Strikes In The Offing?
By Dave M - 7/3/2012
Stocks rallied modestly on Monday despite what was termed a disastrous ISM report. It looks as if expectations for central bankers to launch pre-emptive strikes are the key...

Can The Optimism Continue To Prevail?
By Dave M - 7/2/2012
Optimism about the future (aka "risk on") was loaded up and locked in the full on position from the time the opening bell rang on Friday until the very last tick of the session. The question is if that optimism will stick around...

What Did We Learn?
By Dave M - 6/29/2012
Sometimes that action in the stock market can tell us a lot. So, what did we learn from the roller coaster ride of late?

What If They Just Say Nein?
By Dave M - 6/28/2012
The base assumption in the markets has been the Germany will do just about anything to keep the Eurozone together. But what if...

Is There A Plan?
By Dave M - 6/27/2012
Although there have been any number of "grand plans" coming out of Europe over the past two years, it appears that there is still no plan to address the key problem...

Time For Some Window Dressing?
By Dave M - 6/26/2012
As the end of the second quarter draws near, it is time for the traditional window dressing to occur. But will portfolio managers be looking to dress up or down their books this time around?

Are There Reasons To Be Optimistic?
By Dave M - 6/25/2012
With the macro backdrop clearly negative, I challenged myself to see if I could find any reasons to be optimistic...

A Call To Arms
By Dave M - 6/22/2012
Thursday morning's big "call" from Goldman Sachs to get short the market, right here, right now acted like a call to arms for the bear camp...

The Freak-out Fakeout
By Dave M - 6/21/2012
Although most "fed days" include a massive amount of volatility, yesterday's action proved to be a bit of a fakeout...

Let's Be Honest...
By Dave M - 6/20/2012
The key to the near-term in the stock market would appear to what the Federal Reserve decides to do or not do with regard to economic stimulus. But let's be honest...

How Did We Get Here?
By Dave M - 6/19/2012
Most investors have likely had their fill of Greece and the drama associated with a country whose GDP is ths size of Houston, TX. However it is important to understand that

Now What?
By Dave M - 6/18/2012
By now, you all likely know that Greece's conservative New Democracy party won the election redo on Sunday while the left-wing anti-bailout SYRIZA party took second. And this time around the PASOK party says they will throw in with New Democracy in order to be able to form a government. Thus, the natural question becomes...

What Is Ms. Market Saying (If Anything)?
By Dave M - 6/15/2012
Stocks have flip flopped from green to red and from red to green for six consecutive sessions now as investors position themselves in front of the Greek elections. What does this tell us (if anything)?

Either Hope Trumps Fear Or...
By Dave M - 6/13/2012
The market action over that past two days has made it clear that either hope (for more QE) trumps fear (of a disaster in the Eurozone) or that this has simply gotten to the...

It's (Still) All About The Rates
By Dave M - 6/12/2012
Monday's major reversal in stock prices shows us that this game continues to be all about the rates across the pond...

Does This Ever End?
By Dave M - 6/11/2012
Stocks look like they will open higher on the back of the latest bailout in Europe. But the question is if the current news/rumor-driven environment is ever going to end...

You Pick Your Spots
By Dave M - 6/8/2012
Although traders appear to be upset with Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi, the question is what would you do right now if you were in their shoes?

Can Hope Continue To Prevail?
By Dave M - 6/7/2012
After yesterday's big blast, which was attributed to hope for better days ahead, the key question of the day is if hope can continue to prevail...

It's Tough Out There
By Dave M - 6/6/2012
There is no denying the fact that the stock market has not exactly been a friendly place to invest since April 1st. And the latest data shows that it it indeed tough out there right now...

Hope Versus Reality
By Dave M - 6/5/2012
It appears that the current stock market is all about the battle between hope and reality. And after getting its butt kicked rather handily over the prior three sessions, hope made a bit of a comeback on Monday.

The Dance Continues
By Dave M - 6/4/2012
The Eurozone crisis dance appears to be continuing unabated this morning. The first step sees markets freak out about the state of the banking sytem. Next, EU leaders gather to hatch a grand plan...

Summer of Discontent III
By Dave M - 6/1/2012
It appears that we've got a third consecutive 'summer of discount' on our hands. So, we thought we'd review some ways to play this difficult game...

Does Any Of It Really Matter?
By Dave M - 5/31/2012
There was a littany of negative takeaways from Wednesday's market dive. However, the question of the day seems to be: Does any of it really matter?

Either All News is Good News, Or...
By Dave M - 5/30/2012
At this stage of the game it appears that traders view all news in the U.S. as good news. Unless of course a rumor from Europe or China hits the tape...

The Return of the Rumor Rampage
By Dave M - 5/24/2012
The shoot first, ask questions later, and oh by the way, don't bother me with any details type of market environment appears to have returned as indices are being moved by rumors once again...

Let's Just Stop All The Pretending
By Dave M - 5/23/2012
It is safe to say that nobody on Wall Street has a crystal ball that can predict much of anything. Why then do so many analysts insist on pretending they can?

Revisiting The Correction Playbook
By Dave M - 5/22/2012
Although it took MUCH long that just about anybody thought, stocks finally bounced yesterday. However, corrections typically...

Isn't It Time For Something Good To Happen?
By Dave M - 5/21/2012
Stocks have been down twelve of the last thirteen sessions and the mood is getting dismal. So, isn't it about time for something good to happen?

Why Greece Does and Doesn't Matter
By Dave M - 5/17/2012
Although Greece's GDP is only slightly larger than that of Houston, TX, the happenings are once again causing chaos...

Is BTE About To Make a Comeback?
By Dave M - 5/2/2012
It occurred to me last evening while flying across the Atlantic that yesterday's ISM report may have put BTE back in the game. But the data is really the key...

Ready, Set, Sell?
By Dave M - 5/1/2012
My digital calendar informed me this morning that the month of May has officially arrived. And according to Wall Street's folklore, this means that it may be time to do something other than invest in the stock market for a while. But...

The Correction May Be Over, But...
By Dave M - 4/30/2012
Five days ago, the bears seemed to have everything going their way and the indices were on the run. However, since that time it has become clear that...

The Whispering Returns
By Dave M - 4/27/2012
Sometimes the "why" behind what happened on Wall Street is far more important than the "what." Thursday was a perfect example as the whispers returned...

Today I'm From Missouri
By Dave M - 4/26/2012
Even after yesterday's joyride to the upside on the back of Apple, the market remains in a trading range. As such, I'm going to hail from Missouri today and...

Can 'NBA' Make a Comeback?
By Dave M - 4/25/2012
One analyst dubbed the strong rally seen in the first quarter the NBA makret (Nothing But Apple). Can the focus on the world's biggest company make a comeback and push stocks out of the consolidation phase?

Weebles Wobble But They Don't...
By Dave M - 4/24/2012
The U.S. stock market has been under attack of late. However, while the major indices have wobbled...

Another Way To Play The Consolidation Phase
By Dave M - 4/23/2012
It looks like the consolidation phase will continue today as Eurozone PMI's have put investors in a foul mood. Here's one additional way to play this phase of the market...

Four Ways to Play (the Consolidation, that is)
By Dave M - 4/19/2012
Although I run the risk of restating the obvious, it appears to me that the current market has gotten more than a little sloppy lately. The bottom line is we've got a consolidation on our hands. Here's four ways to play...

It's Deja vu All Over Again (Again)
By Dave M - 4/18/2012
Indecision appears to have overwhelmed traders (oops, I mean the computers) of late. One minute Europe's woes are back, contagion is spreading, China is going to bring down the world, and Apple (AAPL) is crashing. But the next...

Be Aware of Rallies
By Rich - 4/17/2012
Don't be fooled by pretty green tapes, just yet.

They Say, An Apple a Day...
By Dave M - 4/17/2012
It is said that an apple a day keeps the doctor away. But so far this year, owning APPLE has kept the bears at bay. Is Apple's recent plunge changing the market?

And We're Back To That...
By Dave M - 4/16/2012
After four months of watching the bulls march merrily higher on a daily basis, with nary a single bout of volatility along the way, it is beginning to feel like the bad old days of 2011 have returned.

Break? We Don't Need No Stinking...
By Dave M - 4/13/2012
Thursday's market definitely took me by surprise. While I had expected traders to take a break, it was clearly "game back on" for the bulls. But will today be a different story?

Is It Time To Take a Break?
By Dave M - 4/12/2012
After the impressive run the bulls have enjoyed since last fall, it appears that it might be time to take a break...

This Time It Really Is Different, Right?
By Dave M - 4/11/2012
After watching stocks march merrily higher for more than four months, it appears that the current pullback may be different than what we've seen in the past.

Time To Rethink The Thesis?
By Dave M - 4/10/2012
We had an interesting discussion in the office yesterday about what is, has been, and will be driving the stock market. To my surprise, there was some lively discussion and differing opinions on what has been the impetus...

It's Game Back On
By Dave M - 4/9/2012
After being on the sidelines for what seems like an eternity, the bears contend that it is "game back on" for them after Friday's jobs report...

Follow The Leader!
By Dave M - 4/5/2012
The goal of the stock market game (and of this particular column each morning) is to make sure we understand what is REALLY driving the market...

To Which I Say Hmmm...
By Dave M - 4/4/2012
The question of the day has to do with the degree to which the market had priced in the expectations for the Fed to provide further assistance to the economy...

Can It Continue?
By Dave M - 4/3/2012
The question of the day is if the rally that carried the S&P to a 12% gain in the first quarter can continue. History shows that...

Better Than Expected?
By Dave M - 4/2/2012
The 12% gain in the U.S. stock market during the first quarter was certainly far better than anyone expected. But with all eyes on the U.S. jobs market this week, will the data also be...

Now Is The Time (To Plan)
By Dave M - 3/28/2012
Although no one knows for sure when the bulls will ultimately succumb to a corrective phase, everybody knows that trees don't grow to the sky. As such, now is the time to make a plan for the correction...

Taking No Chances?
By Dave M - 3/27/2012
Monday's speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke created quite a stir with the bulls celebrating the idea of additional Fed assistance. However, from my perch it appears that Mr. Bernanke is simply not taking any chances...

Are We There Yet?
By Dave M - 3/23/2012
Like children feeling trapped in the backseat of a car, underinvested fund managers have apparently been asking the one question that parents universally dread, "Are we there yet?"

Hedge Fund Follies?
By Dave M - 3/22/2012
It is safe to say that nearly every trader, chartist, and/or market analyst on the planet is looking for a pullback in the stock market to begin. So why then has the action in the volatility ETN's gone haywire? We suspect hedge fund follies are at work...

Get It Off The Books!
By Dave M - 3/21/2012
You've got to give the bulls some credit for not succumbing to the barrage of bad news tossed at them Tuesday. However, the reason for the continued buying seems to be fund managers telling their traders...

Are Earnings Going to Crash or Spike the Party
By Rich - 3/20/2012
Profits or bust

What's Been Driving The Buying?
By Dave M - 3/20/2012
The key issue that investors need to understand right now revolves around the question of what has been driving the relentless buying seen since the end of December. In my humble opinion, there are several parts to consider...

Are You a Market Environmentalist?
By Dave M - 3/19/2012
If you want to be consistently successful in manging the bucking bronco that is the stock market, the first step is to identify the market's current environment. The means identifying the type of animal you are dealing with and the...

It's About More Than Smarts
By Dave M - 3/16/2012
There are an awful lot of very smart people with degrees from Ivy league institutions on the wrong side of the trend these days. The key takeaway is that this game is about a lot more than just smarts...

The Great (VIX) Debate
By Dave M - 3/15/2012
One of the great debates going on at the present time has to do with the level of the VIX. The bears tell us that the current reading suggests a major decline is coming. However, if you look at history...

Kiss of Death Post Alert
By Rich - 3/14/2012
warning - do not read this!

What's Not To Like?
By Dave M - 3/14/2012
I continue to believe that the change in the market's character we witnessed from last fall to the beginning of this year was one of the most confounding, yet impressive shifts I've seen in my more than 25 years of managing money. The question right now is...

Does Slow Mo Mean No Mo?
By Dave M - 3/13/2012
There is little doubt that the bulls' upside momentum has slowed over the last two weeks. And to hear the bears tell it, this means we should don the crash helmets. However, my research indicates...

The Weight of the Evidence Says...
By Dave M - 3/12/2012
I believe the real key to staying in tune with the market's important trends lies in listening to the message from your market models and indicators. This is also known as looking at the weight of the evidence.

It ain't Over Until it's Over
By Rich - 3/7/2012
Something that has happened in a decade

What Does The Low Volatility Mean?
By Dave M - 3/7/2012
It came to my attention yesterday that the stock market's decline was the first drop of at least 1% this year. And upon closer inspection, it has been 45 days since the last time the S&P declined 1% or more. Thus, the question becomes...

It's About Confidence
By Dave M - 2/29/2012
For those investors that continue to marvel at the recent action in the stock market, I can sum up the reason behind the relentless march higher in just one line: It's a confidence thing. Confidence that the Eurozone won't break up...

The Confusing Shape of the Market
By Rich - 2/27/2012
A misread or a Wall Street mind-game?

Food for Thought
By Jeff - 2/24/2012
Maybe it's a Chinese Thing After All

From News-Driven Bear To New Bull?
By Dave M - 2/24/2012
One of the most interesting/difficult aspects of trying to manage money in the stock market is the fact that the game is always changing. And one of the most dramatic changes I've ever seen has been...

Remember, It's Not The News...
By Dave M - 2/23/2012
As the saying goes, "It's not the news, but how the market reacts to the news that matters." So, with this time honored Wall Streetism in mind, I have a question for the bears out there this morning...

Moving On
By Dave M - 2/22/2012
I continue to get questions as the reason behind the current run for the roses in the stock market. What about Greece, they ask. Aren't there huge problems with the bailout deal that was finally arranged on Tuesday? The point is...

Lessons Learned, Strategies Employed
By Dave M - 2/21/2012
What are the lessons to be learned from the ever changing markets we've seen over the past four or five years? Are there changes that need to be made to existing strategies? I think the answer is yes..

Good Things Can Happen
By Dave M - 2/17/2012
During the majority of last year, it seemed that all (yes ALL) the news was bad. But this year, it appears that just the opposite is true as all news is seen as good news. Is there a lesson to be heeded here?

Time To Panic Again?
By Dave M - 2/16/2012
After running up more than 12% since the December 19th low, stocks did something that while common last fall has been rare lately - they went down in an ugly fashion. So, is it time to panic again?

Greece Is (Still) The Word
By Dave M - 2/15/2012
As we look back on the seventh consecutive session of the current sideways-is-the-new-down market, it becomes clear that Greece is still the word. While we'd love to move on...

It's Called Accumulation
By Dave M - 2/14/2012
The stock market has confused and confounded a great many investors so far in 2012. While the macro negatives are seemingly monumental with no easy answers, the indices have marched merrily higher. Here's why...

Who Can Predict The Economy?
By Dave M - 2/13/2012
In light of the fact that the current stock market seems to be all about the macro outlook, it would be logical to assume that investors will need to get the economy right if they are going to be correctly positioned this year from a big-picture perspective.

it's Sooo Tempting...
By Dave M - 2/10/2012
When the market does something confounding, such as rally for the better part of eight straight weeks in the face of an ongoing crisis, it is soooo tempting to take a stand and to "make a call" on the next move. But...

Where's The Volume?
By Dave M - 2/9/2012
One of the bear camp's big gripes about the current rally - other than the idea that it came out of nowhere and caught the nattering nabobs of negativism flat footed, of course - is that fact that volume has been lacking. But...

Is It Time To Buy and...?
By Dave M - 2/8/2012
Although our models told us to hop back on the long side of the market six weeks ago, there are a great many investors out there - individuals and professionals alike - that have missed the current rally. So is it time to...

Was January Meaningful?
By Dave M - 2/7/2012
With stocks having been up for five consecutive weeks and eight out of the last ten, the bears suggest that its time for the ugliness to return. However, January's action appears to have been meaningful...

Can MO Beat the High RPM Challenge?
By Rich - 2/6/2012
a couple of road signs worth watching for

Will Slow and Steady Win the Race?
By Dave M - 2/2/2012
Until just recently, the bulls' battle cry had been "better than expected" (economic data, that is). But this week, it appears that our heroes in horns have adopted a different mantra - one that may be more easily attained...

My Crystal Ball Rant
By Dave M - 2/1/2012
I am a big believer in the idea that trying to predict what the stock market is going to do next is a fool's errand. And yet, we continue to be bombarded with folks telling us with absolute certainty where the indices are headed...

What Price Confidence?
By Dave M - 1/31/2012
I wrote last week that I believed the Fed's intention to keep rates "exceptionally low" for a surprisingly long time was aimed at building confidence in the economy. But at what price?

The Big Bad Wolf asks ,"Sprechen Sie Deutsch?"
By Rich - 1/30/2012
And these little piggies went...

Is There a Hole In The Thesis?
By Dave M - 1/30/2012
The bears have certainly had a tough time of it so far in 2012. In fact, the bears haven't had much fun at all since December 20th. However, our furry friends point out that there might be a hole in the bulls' thesis...

Let's Get Sentimental
By Dave M - 1/27/2012
Anyone who takes the study of the stock market seriously undoubtedly spends at least some of their time with sentiment indicators. But right now these indicators are difficult to decipher as there seems to be some conflict...

It's Really About Confidence
By Dave M - 1/26/2012
The Fed's decision to keep interest rates low for at least a year more than had been anticipated was a bit of a head-scratcher to some. However, from my perch, this was all about confidence...

Barrier To Entry
By Dave M - 1/25/2012
With the market off to one its best starts in years, you might expect stock investors to be a happy lot these days. But for many investors, particularly professional money managers, the newfound uptrend presents its own set of problems.

A Costume Change?
By Dave M - 1/24/2012
Although the stock market is overbought and due for a pullback, my current working thesis involves the idea that the market made a costume change on December 20th. Suddenly and without warning, the uber-violent environment in which intraday moves of 3% were common stopped...

To Believe Or Not To Believe?
By Dave M - 1/23/2012
Stocks finished with impressive gains last week and have now been higher in six of the last eight weeks. Don't look now, but the DJIA is less than 100 points from last spring's high water mark for the current bull cycle. However, many investors refuse to believe the move is real...

But, It Is Different This Time, Right?
By Rich - 1/19/2012
Decoupling days are here to stay?

A Different Kind of Decoupling
By Dave M - 1/17/2012
There seems to be some confusion about the idea of the U.S. "decoupling" from the European debt crisis. However, it is important to understand that it is the U.S. stock market that appears to be decoupling and not...

Is The Game Finally Changing?
By Dave M - 1/13/2012
While the intraday trend of the stock market has been nearly identical every day this year, the overall trend of the market appears to be different from what we'd seen over the last five months. So, is the game finally changing?

What Do The Cycles Say?
By Dave M - 1/12/2012
With the stock market waffling near its recent five-month highs, we thought it would be an opportune time to take a look at what the one-, four-, and ten-year stock market cycles have to say about the upcoming year...

The New Trend in Trends
By Dave M - 1/11/2012
Although stocks finished at five-month highs and appear to now be in bullish formations, there is new trend in the market's trend. In short, while prices finish higher, they tend to trend lower during the day due to...

Houses of Hay and Sticks?
By Rich - 1/10/2012
What the 3 little pigs have in common with this market.

Waiting And Wondering
By Dave M - 1/10/2012
A fourth consecutive day of stalled prices has many investors, including yours truly, waiting and wondering which way the market will break. The bulls are hoping that it's "Tebow Time" as the game appears to be on the line and time is running out...

Are Earnings Ready to Miss the Mark
By Rich - 1/9/2012
it's earnings season

In Case This Stuff Still Matters...
By Dave M - 1/9/2012
While all eyes will likely remain fixed on the happenings across the Atlantic and the yields on the bonds of Italy and Spain, I thought I'd take a look at some stuff that once mattered a lot to Wall Street. Just in case this stuff comes back in style some day...

Fed Ex and UPS Deliver a Strong Jobs Report
By Rich - 1/6/2012
Jobs - will they last

The Battle Between Good and Bad (Data That Is)
By Dave M - 1/6/2012
There appears to be a battle raging in the stock market at the present time as traders try to weigh the good against the seemingly never ending stream of bad (data that is). And today we will likely see the battle intensify...

One Day At A Time
By Dave M - 1/5/2012
Our view of the recent action is modestly positive. You see, we're of the mind that each day the U.S. market does not tank in response to the latest headlines, rumors, and/or announcements out of Europe brings us closer to the end of the crisis...

Do The Bulls Have a Case?
By Dave M - 1/4/2012
Although the bears appear to have regained their footing Wednesday on the latest unconfirmed and un-sourced "report" out of Europe, the bulls suggest that they indeed have a case for higher stock prices...

The Real Key To 2012
By Dave M - 1/3/2012
To say that 2011 was challenging for active managers (especially the second half) is likely the understatement of the year. So, what's the key to succeeding in the coming year, you ask? In short, I believe...

Understanding The Game Being Played
By Dave M - 12/23/2011
This is the time of year when investors tend to review their performance for the past year and plot strategy for the upcoming game. In doing the review it is important to understand the game that you are playing and what is acceptable...

Can We Ignore It?
By Dave M - 12/22/2011
Although this market can turn on a dime (or the latest headline or rumor), you have to give the bulls some credit for their ability to simply ignore all the bad stuff at the present time and stay focused on pushing the S&P into the green on the year...

Is This Thing Over?
By Dave M - 12/21/2011
The key question at this stage of the current overly-violent game is if the European sovereign debt crisis is over (at least as far as the stock market is concerned) given the ECB's latest moves to unfreeze credit markets...

Stuck In The Middle With EU
By Dave M - 12/20/2011
Although the stock market may finally be finding the holiday spirit, it appears that the indices may be stuck in between negatives from Europe's debt mess and the positive U.S. economic data. The question is which will prevail?

Will It Work?
By Dave M - 12/19/2011
One of the key questions in the market at the present time is whether or not the ECB's new long-term funding facility will function as the "bazooka" that analysts have been hoping for. The bulls say yes. But...

Is It The Action or Something Else?
By Dave M - 12/16/2011
Thursday's market action was certainly disappointing for anyone in the bull camp as traders were treated to a fistful of good news but came away with very little to show for it. So, should we listen to the market action or…

Flipping The Switch
By Dave M - 12/15/2011
Although the "risk switch" has been flipped to the "off" position for the vast majority of the past week, it appears that a solid auction in Spain and some decent economic data in the U.S. may cause traders to flip the switch again...

Is There A Reason (Does There Need To Be)?
By Dave M - 12/14/2011
Long time readers know that I am a stout believer in the idea that there is usually a reason behind a good-sized market move. And while yesterday's initial moves up and then down made sense, the afternoon dive did not...

Black-eye Friday and Cyber-bully Monday?
By Rich - 12/13/2011
A one eyed fight?

Let Me Get This Straight...
By Dave M - 12/13/2011
Let's see if I've got this right. Stocks rallied last week on the hope that the EU would form a fiscal compact. Then they dove on comments out of the ECB. But then they rallied again on the compact. And of course...

By Rich - 12/12/2011
Lucy pulls the ball yet again

Do You Believe?
By Dave M - 12/12/2011
With just fourteen trading left in what is currently being called the "Nightmare on Wall Street" (lest we forget, hedge funds are having their second worst year on record), the question of the day is: Do you believe?

Don't Jerk Me Around Buddy
By Rich - 12/9/2011
where might stocks be headed?

Would You Lend Them The Money?
By Dave M - 12/9/2011
The key to the European sovereign debt crisis comes down to the troubled nations being able to borrow money at reasonable rates in order to refinance their debt. So, if you want to keep things simple, ask yourself one simple question...

Merkozy Better Have The Right Prescription
By Rich - 12/8/2011
We might need some medicine after tomorrow

Same Song (er, Rumor), Different Day
By Dave M - 12/8/2011
The action in the stock market has followed a familiar pattern of late. Stocks focus on the Euro crisis, a ratings agency then downgrades something, and stocks see volatility based on headlines that are eventually...

What You Don't Know Could Help You?
By Rich - 12/7/2011
dirty little secrets

All In The Family
By Dave M - 12/7/2011
The latest grand plan to save the Eurozone would have the 17 member states becoming an increasingly close knit family. Here's my take on how the latest episode of "All in the Family" is likely to play out.

When You Assume...
By Dave M - 12/6/2011
As the saying goes, when you assume, you make an a-- out of you and me. Thus, after the long string of false starts offered by European leaders, it is surprising to me that the markets are assuming that this time is different...

It Looks Like Santa Knows What We Want for Christmas This Year
By Rich - 12/5/2011
ho, ho, ho, stocks might continue to go.

Can We Go It Alone
By Dave M - 12/5/2011
Although the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis remains the center of attention, the key question for 2012 appears to be whether or not the U.S. will be able to avoid the economic contraction that seems to be infecting the major economies of the world...

It Seems So Simple
By Dave M - 12/2/2011
Although there are lots of acronyms and sophisticated strategies being bandied about in an attempt to solve the European debt crisis, the situation seems relatively simple at the present time. In short, the Europeans appear to be….

Is It Time?
By Dave M - 12/1/2011
The good news is that the next EU Summit begins in just seven days. And this time, leaders tell us, they have a plan to fix the sovereign debt crisis once and for all. The bad news, of course, is that investors will have to play the waiting game for eight more days…

Dollars Are A Central Thing
By Rich - 11/30/2011
Time to belly up on the buck?

To Be Or Not To Be?
By Dave M - 11/30/2011
I will admit that the title of this morning's missive may be a little clichéd and perhaps a bit over the top. But then again, with the very future of the Eurozone on the line, maybe "To be or not to be?" is an appropriate question after all - well, for the ECB anyway.

Don't Be Late!
By Dave M - 11/29/2011
The moral to this morning's meandering missive is simple. With the entirety of a market move occurring within a matter of two or three of minutes, it is important to recognize that this remains a difficult environment and that being late to the bell could be costly…

Stocks Are Ready To Go Zoom
By Rich - 11/28/2011
the spring is ready to uncoil

Highly Correlated
By Dave M - 11/28/2011
Perhaps the story of the year in the stock market isn't about the trouble in the Middle East, the triple tragedy in Japan, or even the European sovereign debt crisis. No, one of the big keys to this market...

Confidence Killers
By Dave M - 11/23/2011
Investor sentiment is one of the key ingredients to understanding the stock market at any given point in time. Currently, all you need to know is that there are a slew of confidence killers in this market, which makes it tough for the bulls to even show up...

Two Options For Stocks
By Rich - 11/22/2011
what to watch for with the stock market

Maybe The Sky Is Falling
By Dave M - 11/22/2011
The current level of negativity in the market is impressive. Although traders were optimistic about the prospects for the U.S. in October, that optimism has now been erased and the prevailing thinking is that the sky is indeed falling...

One-Off Or The New Normal?
By Dave M - 11/21/2011
With the end of the year now in sight, I'm guessing that more than a few investors and/or fund managers have reviewed their efforts for the year. My question comes down to: Is 2011 a one-off or the new normal?

The Games People Play
By Dave M - 11/18/2011
I don't know about you, but I am growing weary of the games being played with the stock market by the big boys and their computers. In the old days, there would be a reason for stock prices to move 200 points in a matter of minutes...

This Up Just Feels So Down
By Rich - 11/16/2011
Keeping up the with downs

Things That Do Work These Days
By Dave M - 11/16/2011
Given that the daily volatility in the market has clearly increased over the past few years, it has become more difficult to easily quantify the current trend of the overall market. As such, the key is to find a way to step back from the intraday noise…

More On Moving Averages
By Dave M - 11/14/2011
In Friday’s report, my main point was that the character of the market changes over time and that traditional indicators of the market's strength and directional bias are no longer as valuable as they once were...

Why Isn't This Working Anymore?
By Dave M - 11/11/2011
Most anyone who has ever clicked the buy or sell button knows that moving averages can be valuable tools to help make decisions. However, over the years, this approach has become less and less valuable...

Time For The Implosion?
By Dave M - 11/10/2011
To hear the bears tell it, we should expect the stock market to embark on the long-awaited implosion process. The argument anxiously provided by our furry friends this morning is that all is lost in Europe...

An Italian Not So Love Story
By Rich - 11/8/2011
Berlusconi - will he or won't he go?

Is Italy Really The Key?
By Dave M - 11/8/2011
Given the drama that we've seen in Greece over the past week and the corresponding market reaction to each and every headline, the bears would have us believe that we should now turn our attention to Italy...

The Toughest Call
By Dave M - 11/7/2011
It is said that the toughest trades to make tend to be the most successful. So, let's start with a simple question this morning: What would be the toughest call you could make right now in the stock market?

Can We Move On Now?
By Dave M - 11/4/2011
With the markets having been kidnapped by Greece for the entire week and the odds favoring a resolution to the drama coming shortly, the key question on my mind is: Can we please move on now?

Ben Says He Is Going To Make It Rain
By Rich - 11/3/2011
Big Ben says to buy

It's So Easy (To Be Negative)
By Dave M - 11/3/2011
With all of the macro concerns and worries facing this market, it is very easy to be negative these days. But here's a challenge for you. Can you come up with any reasons to be positive in the next 30 seconds?

Will It Even Meow?
By Rich - 11/2/2011
stocks should - I say should - find support

A Couple Ways To Play
By Dave M - 11/2/2011
Just when you thought it was safe to start analyzing market metrics again (you know, looking at the advance/decline data, the volume relationships, trends, moving averages, company earnings, valuations, etc.) Mr. Papandreou comes along and hijacks the market – AGAIN…

A Greek Tragedy
By Rich - 11/1/2011
Here comes the boom

Here We Go Again?
By Dave M - 11/1/2011
After celebrating the fact that the European Union leaders had come up with a plan to make a plan for a few days, the ugliness returned to the corner of Broad and Wall yesterday on word out of Greece...

Euro Scares Re-Occupy Wall Street?
By Rich - 10/31/2011
Is the hibernation over?

Will Frightful Markets Return?
By Dave M - 10/31/2011
After an historic run from what appeared to be the start of a bear market on October 4, the natural question on this Halloween day is: Will the markets become frightful again anytime soon?

Will The Focus Finally Shift?
By Dave M - 10/28/2011
It is likely the understatement of the year to suggest that Europe has been the singular focus of traders since early summer. But with the Eurozone's comprehensive plan now taking shape and finally agreed upon...

It Might Be Enough
By Dave M - 10/27/2011
Now that the details of the 'comprehensive plan' are out and there doesn't seem to be any major disappointments it might be enough to put an end to the extreme volatility we've been treated to for that past three months. Well, maybe for a while, anyway.

Will They Bring The Bazooka?
By Dave M - 10/26/2011
Despite the fact that earnings season is now running at full tilt and the economic data continues to come in on both sides of the fence, "the plan" is really all that matters right now. So you can forget about the charts...

Deadlier Words Have Never Been Spoken
By Rich - 10/25/2011
something that should never be said

Has The Funeral Been Postponed?
By Dave M - 10/25/2011
On October 4th it appeared that all hope was lost. Europe was doomed, the U.S. was heading to recession, and China was looking at a hard landing. However, since then, it appears the funeral for the global economy has been called off...

Tick Tock
By Dave M - 10/24/2011
The good news is that both the DJIA and the S&P 500 broke out of their respective trading ranges on Friday in convincing fashion. The bad news is that it may not mean much as the clock is ticking on an EU solution...

Let's Play The Guessing Game
By Dave M - 10/21/2011
Good morning and welcome back to the guessing game. In case you're a new contestant, this is a game in which investors of all shapes and sizes place their bets and attempt to guess which way the markets will move in the next three minutes…

The Trade: Hope vs. Fear
By Dave M - 10/20/2011
A good bit of the rationale behind the stock market's most recent run for the roses from the low of October 4th has been based on the idea that European leaders were finally going to get ahead of the curve and create a 'comprehensive plan' to deal with the debt crisis

An Ounce Of Smart Versus A Pounding Of Stupid
By Rich - 10/19/2011
Don't get caught by surprise

When The Media Becomes The Story
By Dave M - 10/19/2011
Although there was an abundance of stories for traders to focus on during Tuesday's session, it was a story with a questionable headline out of the UK that got everybody's attention (including the computers)...

Fakeout #4?
By Dave M - 10/18/2011
Part of the problem with trying to interpret the technical movements of the market these days is everybody in the game looks at charts and even the most sophisticated technical indicators can be found free on the web. Therefore…

Will It Matter?
By Dave M - 10/17/2011
It is safe to say that the bulls have been on a roll lately as the DJIA put up its second best weekly gain of the year. However, there are two important points to note about the action in the markets...

Riding The Range(s)
By Dave M - 10/14/2011
Although the all the major indices remain in the red on the year, it is important to recognize that the stock market has spent the vast majority of 2011 moving sideways. So, is it time to saddle up again?

A Vegan Volume Bull?
By Rich - 10/13/2011
where is the beef?

Getting To The Point
By Dave M - 10/13/2011
Although details of plans to finally come up with a solution are few and far between, it does appear that EU leaders are finally getting to the crux of the problem.

The Chicago Way
By Rich - 10/12/2011
can a mountain be built with tiny stones?

Thinking Out Loud
By Dave M - 10/12/2011
I'm of the opinion that there are two key points that are important to recognize about the current market. First, the volume relationship during the recent joyride to the upside has been exceptionally bad. Second, this market seems like it just wants to go higher...

Buying Some Time (Again)
By Dave M - 10/11/2011
The leaders of the Eurozone have spent a great deal of time recently talking about the idea of restoring confidence in the banks of the region, the Euro as a currency, and the powers-that-be of the EU. In my humble opinion...

Fear, Hope and Greed
By Dave M - 10/6/2011
It is often said that the stock market is driven by the emotions of fear, hope, and greed. Bear markets tend to begin when fear is prevalent and then accelerate as the bears get greedy. The market then bottoms when...

A Strange Trip It Has Been
By Rich - 10/5/2011
Magic Band-Aids heal all wounds, or do they?

Two Little Words
By Dave M - 10/5/2011
With the game on the line and the clock winding down on a bruised and battered bull squad, the defensive unit was asked to get back out on the field and find some way to keep their ferocious counterparts from scoring yet again on Wednesday.

QE Is Slip Sliding Away
By Rich - 10/4/2011
Big Ben is hurting

No Easy Fixes?
By Dave M - 10/4/2011
Although the comparisons to 2008 continue unabated, it is our view that the current market is very different that the Credit Crisis Bear. This time around, there are two massive problems and no easy fixes...

Committing To New Lows In October?
By Rich - 10/3/2011
Germany tells Europe, no more money for you - what does it mean for your portfolio?

Fun Facts To Know and Tell
By Dave M - 10/3/2011
With a sea of red ink in the global stock markets this morning and the U.S. indices flirting with the lows of the now 7-week old trading range, there are several key questions facing investors this morning, including...

What's Scarier Than Halloween in October?
By Rich - 9/30/2011
a scary October ahead?

Wall Street's Mean Streak
By Dave M - 9/30/2011
As I have mentioned a time or twenty, I have a compulsive need to understand the driving forces behind big(ish) moves in the stock market. Nine times out of ten it is fairly easy to connect the dots and identify the catalyst for a meaningful move.

Joe DiMaggio - Where Did You Go?
By Rich - 9/29/2011
The streak finally dies?

It's a Confidence Thing
By Dave M - 9/29/2011
The current up-and-down market is all about confidence. Each and every day traders express their confidence in the European debt situation as well as the global macroeconomic outlook via how they position their accounts...

Is The Limp Yo-Yo Ready To Fall Down The Stairs?
By Rich - 9/28/2011
waiting for the word to come

Slowdown? What Slowdown?
By Dave M - 9/28/2011
For the past two weeks, the stock market's movements could be tied to the outlook for the global economy. First, things were better than expected and then, they weren't. But now, stocks only care about...

Can The Confidence Last?
By Dave M - 9/27/2011
Given that this stock market likes to go in one direction for several days straight and then reverse on a dime and go the other way, I guess we should have expected to see the indices embark on yet another joyride to the upside on Monday...

Bottom Fishing
By Rich - 9/23/2011
things to keep an eye on.

Stocks Will Bottom When...
By Dave M - 9/23/2011
With many of the world's stock markets down enough to be in "bear market" territory, it is safe to say that this is not an ordinary pullback. As such investors need to understand that stocks will bottom when...

Twist And Ouch
By Rich - 9/22/2011
The Fed scares the hell out of everybody...

Not A Good Read
By Dave M - 9/22/2011
I will have to admit that while the vast majority of my portfolios continue to be positioned fairly defensively, the market's reaction to the Fed announcement took me by surprise. In short, the statement wasn't a great read...

Will The Fed Strike Gold?
By Rich - 9/21/2011
Today is sure to be a wild ride - find out why....

You Can Lead A Horse To Water...
By Dave M - 9/21/2011
With all eyes on the FOMC today and expectations running high for the Bernanke cavalry to ride to the market's rescue, I'm wondering about the effectiveness of an "operation twist"...

Next Up: The Matter of Earnings
By Dave M - 9/20/2011
Although the focus of traders' attention is currently split between the Eurozone and the expectations for Ben Bernanke's cavalry to ride to the rescue tomorrow, a glance at the calendar reveals that the quarterly earnings parade is scheduled to start rolling again soon…

I'm Not Waiting On A Lady, I'm Just Waiting For Big Ben
By Rich - 9/19/2011
Round and round the Euros are turning me

Can We Escape?
By Dave M - 9/19/2011
Short-term trends come and go during bull markets, bear markets, and everything in between. However, it is important to remember that the really big money is made in this business during what we like to call the "important trends."

Ready - Set - Tug
By Rich - 9/16/2011
The battle has just begun

Game Changer or Euro-Style Band-Aid?
By Dave M - 9/16/2011
With the market having surged higher for four straight sessions, the key question at hand is if the action taken by five central banks on Thursday was a true game changer or merely another band-aid?

Is the Neckline the Finish Line Too?
By Rich - 9/15/2011
Pearls and Pull Backs....

The Dumbest Idea Yet?
By Dave M - 9/15/2011
Although not all of the headlines have been positive this morning, the upbeat sentiment stemming from the "Merkozy" conference call appears to have stuck this morning as traders look ahead to brighter days...

You're Betting On The Economy
By Dave M - 9/14/2011
Although all eyes are on Europe this morning as the world appears ready to rally around Greece, we must understand that an investment in the U.S. stock market at current levels means a bet on the U.S. economy...

Watch Your Backside Charlie Brown Bulls!
By Rich - 9/13/2011
China to the rescue - again, and again and again and...

Of Knights and White Horses
By Dave M - 9/13/2011
For the bears, Monday started off with such promise. Foreign markets were down hard, Greece was running out of cash and there was talk of an "orderly insolvency." However, a knight on a white horse appeared on the horizon to turn things around...

Germany Decides To Turn The Greek Butterfly Loose?
By Rich - 9/12/2011
Has Germany had enough of the Greek debt dance?

All About the Macro Crowd?
By Dave M - 9/12/2011
One of the keys to staying in tune with the action on Wall Street is to have a solid understanding of the players in the game. As such, it is important to get to know the "macro crowd" and how they approach the markets - especially now...

$450 Billion Reasons Stocks Are Going To...
By Rich - 9/9/2011
Stepping up?

Shall This Too Pass?
By Dave M - 9/9/2011
It appears that there are two key assumptions being made by the bull camp at the present time. First, that this market is merely a replay of last year's summer of discontent and second that this too shall pass...

Don't Worry, Don't Fear, A More Accommodating Fed Is Near
By Rich - 9/8/2011
All we need is just a little patience Patience...Ooh, oh, yeah

It's What Wasn't Said That Matters
By Dave M - 9/8/2011
Sometimes it's what wasn't said that really matters to the markets. In short, with the ISM numbers coming in above expectations and the Beige Book making no mention whatsoever of recession...

Germans mess with Gold's Glitter
By Jeff - 9/7/2011
Or Goldilocks is in the Building - At least for Today

German Court Says It's OK For Stocks To Go Up Today
By Rich - 9/7/2011
Stocks rock on

Can Everyone Be a Contrarian?
By Dave M - 9/7/2011
With traders of all shapes and sizes still stinging from missing the top of 2008 as well as the bottom of 2009, nearly everyone in the game is now looking to go contrary to the crowd. Which, of course, begs the question...

At What Price Value This Time?
By Dave M - 9/6/2011
It would appear that stocks remain in the midst of what traders like to call a period of "price discovery" during which time the indices seek out the appropriate level for the current macro environment...

The Federal Government's New Motto: Better At Creating Lawsuits Than Jobs
By Rich - 9/2/2011
Ouch - that Zero is going to hurt

When Bad News Isn't Bad Enough
By Dave M - 9/2/2011
Ask yourself the following question: What is the worst macroeconomic environment for stock market investors? Yep, that's right; an economy that is growing, but just barely, with little job creation and just enough inflation to keep the pain up.

Has The Insanity Ended?
By Dave M - 9/1/2011
The technicians tell us that stocks have broken out of a double-bottom formation over the past two sessions and that the indices are now embarking on a new rally phase. Does this mean that the recent insanity has finally ended?

No News Is Good News - For Today
By Rich - 8/31/2011
Nothing in Bulls way until tomorrow, and then...

Has the 'Tepper Trade' Returned?
By Dave M - 8/31/2011
It would appear that 'the trade' David Tepper talked about this time last year may be making a comeback. If you recall, Tepper opined that if the economy improved stocks won and if the economy faltered…

Bull Can Use Some Coffee
By Rich - 8/30/2011
Coffee for you sir/madam?

Hope Springs Eternal
By Dave M - 8/29/2011
With a lot of hopeful commentary coming out of Jackson Hole over the weekend and Irene being relatively kind, it would appear that once again hope springs eternal at the corner of Broad and Wall…

For Ben Bernanke, Select Comfort is not an Option
By Rich - 8/26/2011
The Fed reads a bedtime story for your investing enjoyment ....

The American PIIGS
By Jeff - 8/25/2011
Today Texas came to the rescue of Utopia and Unicorn

Will 'Standing Ready' Be Enough?
By Dave M - 8/25/2011
The question of the day from a market perspective is what Ben Bernanke will say (or won't say) with regard to the state of the U.S. economy. While the market seems to expect the Fed Chairman to...

After Ben Do Stocks Go Back In The Jackson Hole?
By Rich - 8/24/2011
What Come After Friday...

Is Bad News Good News Again?
By Dave M - 8/24/2011
During Tuesday's session, it appeared that bad news was suddenly good news as it meant an increasing likelihood that Mr. Bernanke would ride to the rescue again. However, today it looks like good news is also, well, good...

Twisting To The 12 Day Average?
By Rich - 8/23/2011
Will Ben hurry up and do something?

Time For Act II?
By Dave M - 8/23/2011
About the only positive one can take away from the current market environment is that we've seen this production before and based on what we're seeing, it might be time for Act II to begin...

12 Day Is In Your Future
By Rich - 8/22/2011
Where do you go from here?

Isn't It Possible?
By Dave M - 8/22/2011
Investor sentiment is certainly interesting to watch right now. And in an effort to look at the environment from both sides, I respectfully submit a handful what-if's for consideration this morning...

A Brief Technical Take For Today
By Rich - 8/19/2011
A big test is on its way....

Will It Be Different This Time?
By Dave M - 8/19/2011
It is said that one of the fastest ways to lose money in the markets is to utter the words "But this time it's different." While I am both cognizant and respectful of this adage, I also think it is important to recognize…

The More Things Stay The Same, The Less They Change
By Rich - 8/18/2011
2008 replay?

Running Out Of Reasons?
By Dave M - 8/18/2011
During the heat of the recent summer swoon in stocks, there were lots of reasons for folks to buy. However, now that traders have played the "big bounce" have they run out of reasons to buy?

Searching For The Truth
By Dave M - 8/17/2011
With the volatility receding, it would appear that traders are now in the process of searching out the appropriate level of stock market pricing given the new macroeconomic environment - aka "the truth"...

Everything's Fine Now, Right?
By Dave M - 8/16/2011
Although the screens aren't exactly green in the early going Tuesday, the attitude displayed on Monday can best be characterized as "What, me worry?" as traders continued to stick to the waterfall decline script...

Of Trends, Traditions, and Commandments
By Dave M - 8/15/2011
As the saying goes, if something happens on Wall once it is a trend, if it happens twice it is a tradition, and if it happens three times, it is a commandment. Here's a look at some trends and traditions in the market right now...

The Green Monster and then some
By Jeff - 8/12/2011
Gold's homerun would've embarrassed The Bambino this week.

Not Getting Any Worse
By Dave M - 8/12/2011
The key to the current upside action in the market (besides the computer-driven trades) is the fact that things aren't getting any worse on any of the market's hot button topics at the moment...

All About The Banks (Again?)
By Dave M - 8/11/2011
During the credit crisis of 2008-09, the key problem was the fear that the banking industry would simply collapse. Today it appears that it's once again all about the banks. But at this stage...

Understanding The Move
By Dave M - 8/10/2011
While the major news outlets attributed Tuesday's explosive rebound of more than 600 Dow points in 75 minutes to the Fed's pledge to keep rates low, that isn't the real story behind the surge...

What 2008 Tells Us About Today
By Rich - 8/9/2011
2011 might have some of 2008's financial meltdown DNA

Tell Me Something Good
By Dave M - 8/9/2011
With the stock market in freefall mode at the present time (the Dow is down 2,000 points in 12 days), investors and traders are both looking for someone, somewhere to tell them something good...

What Will Ben Do For His Next Economic Trick?
By Rich - 8/8/2011
Grab the Dramamine

Somebody Had To Say It
By Dave M - 8/8/2011
The news of S&P's downgrade of our country's sovereign debt left me angry. First at S&P for having the nerve to do such a thing, at such a time. But upon further reflection, somebody had to say it...

The Jig is Up
By Jeff - 8/5/2011
This is supposed to be the off season for gold.

Worse Than We Thought?
By Dave M - 8/5/2011
The key to understanding the current dance to the downside is that the stock market is a discounting mechanism for what is expected to happen in the future (to the economy, earnings, etc.). And the bottom line right now is...

Is The Matador Reaching For The Sword?
By Rich - 8/4/2011
This is getting old...

Neckline or Neck Tie? (I Can't Tell)
By Dave M - 8/4/2011
I get concerned whenever everybody is talking about the same thing. And right now there is an inordinate amount of chatter about the head-and-shoulders top formation seen on the S&P 500. However...

The NYSE Says Enough is Enough
By Rich - 8/3/2011
ADP jobs report could end slide - for today anyway.

Time For The White Horses?
By Dave M - 8/3/2011
For the better part of the last eighteen months, the pullbacks and corrections have followed a familiar pattern. But each and every time, the knights on white horses have rode in to save the day. Thus, isn't it about time...

D.C. Defaults on Debt Debate
By Rich - 8/2/2011
Don't bother pulling the string

Signals Crossed
By Rich - 8/2/2011
Day 8 of the current losing streak looks to be on its way.

Shifting The Focus (Again)?
By Dave M - 8/2/2011
Traders are nothing if not focused. First it was Japan, then Greece, then Italy/Spain, and most recently the 4 D's (debt, deficit, default, and downgrade). But is the focus in the markets shifting back to the macroeconomic view again?

Now The Fun Begins
By Dave M - 8/1/2011
To the surprise of almost no one, Congressional leaders FINALLY came to an agreement with the White House on Sunday for a plan to increase the debt ceiling and to "cut spending" going forward. However, now the fun really begins...

You're Once, Twice, Three Times a Sell Signal
By Rich - 7/29/2011
Third time isn't charming at all....

Where Is The Leadership?
By Dave M - 7/29/2011
While I do my darndest to stay out of politics in this job, the current difficulties in Washington are now impacting the markets on an hourly basis. As such I have one very important question to ask...

As Expected?
By Dave M - 7/28/2011
Up until yesterday afternoon, stocks had been unexpectedly holding up fairly well. But with the debt/deficit/default debate now getting uglier by the hour, stocks are acting about as had been expected as the bears appear to have relocated their mojo...

Chocolate or Vanilla?
By Rich - 7/27/2011
Double Dip?

Avoiding The Dark Side (For Now?)
By Dave M - 7/27/2011
Perhaps the most interesting aspect to the current market isn't necessarily the three-ring circus that is currently playing in Washington but rather the refusal of traders to embrace the dark side of the debate at the present time…

If You Liked Monday...
By Dave M - 7/26/2011
Given that the purported deadline for Washington to get a deal done is still a week away, it is a fairly safe bet that we may see more posturing, politicking, finger-pointing and name-calling by lawmakers this week...

No Deal, Seriously?
By Dave M - 7/25/2011
First there was the July 22nd deadline. Then Geithner and Boehner said Sunday night prior to the opening of the Asian markets was the deadline. But both have now come and gone with no deal. To which, I ask...

Bi-Polar Predictions
By Jeff - 7/24/2011
Where is silver going?

Forrest Gump Politicians
By Rich - 7/22/2011
The debt solution can be found in history

Deal Or No Deal?
By Dave M - 7/22/2011
The current game on Wall Street appears to be a version of "Deal or No Deal?" as the markets move quickly on any news relating to word of an agreement here in the U.S. or across the pond...

Time To Make An Adjustment?
By Dave M - 7/21/2011
It is said that the stock market is a discounting mechanism for what is expected to happen in the next three to six months. While I agree with this concept, the time taken to make adjustments in the outlook is becoming quite short...

Cued To Go Up
By Rich - 7/20/2011
Ready for some more

Was That So Hard?
By Dave M - 7/20/2011
The political wrangling in Washington has been tough to watch lately as both sides of the debate seem more interested in finger-pointing and name-calling than getting anything done. But yesterday was a breath of fresh air as...

It's Still Greek To Me
By Dave M - 7/19/2011
Although the worries in the market are well known, traders continue to fret about the possibility of a 2008-style credit crisis replay. Part of the issue on Monday was the results from the EU-wide bank stress tests, which without some explanation were all Greek to me...

All Macro, All The Time
By Dave M - 7/18/2011
Although stocks did manage to hold onto a gain on Friday, it appears that the current market environment will remain focused on the macro issues of the day (issues that could change quickly) for some time...

A Thought On Americans' "Fair Share" of Taxes
By Dave M - 7/16/2011
The President is talking again today about "fairness" with regard to the amount of taxes each American must pay. And while his speech may sound appealing, the facts point out that...

Between Hope and Fear
By Dave M - 7/15/2011
During times of uncertainty in the stock market, the indices tend to seek out an equilibrium point between hope and fear. In short, this appears to be what is happening at the present time...

Just Moody or is Moody's Right?
By Rich - 7/14/2011
Default watch, a worry or a wart?

Black And White, And Red All Over
By Dave M - 7/14/2011
The fact the Ben Bernanke put the possibility of further quantitative easing in black and white in his Congressional testimony gives investors confidence that the Fed is still on the case. But...

Follow the Bouncing PIIGS
By Rich - 7/13/2011
Promises, Promises - ones you never keep.

Our Summer of Discontent II
By Dave M - 7/13/2011
With the market down, then up, then down again in response to any and all headlines, it is little wonder that investors are beginning to get a little frazzled. However, with a great deal of uncertainty still out there, our summer of discontent may continue...

Buying the Dip or Are Only Dips Buying?
By Rich - 7/12/2011
A Tsunami of selling is headed our way, will the waves fade before hitting the shoreline?

Opening Up The Playbook (Again)
By Dave M - 7/12/2011
If the recent decline is beginning to feel familiar, it should as it appears that traders have returned to the playbook on how to profit from sovereign debt fears. Let's see, step one is to bid up the prices of CDS...

You Have To Ask Yourself
By Dave M - 7/11/2011
With the market back to within spitting distance of its highs for this bull market cycle, you have to ask yourself a few questions. First, are the expectations for economy as strong as they were on April 29th? Next...

Jobless To the Left of Me, Greeks to the Right, Here I am, Stuck in the Middle With You
By Rich - 7/7/2011
Stocks could get a lift, but the ceiling is right there

The Waiting is the Hardest Part
By Rich - 7/6/2011
Tom Petty Provides our Stock Market Advice Today

Profit Taking Could Be Ahead
By Rich - 7/5/2011
Charts suggest the market's next move.

The Next Question
By Dave M - 7/5/2011
With the threat of an imminent default now off the table and the U.S. economy showing signs of life, traders appear to be undoing some of the negative discounting that was done from May and June. But the next big question is...

Stocks Could Take a Long Weekend Too
By Rich - 6/30/2011
Will bulls make it 4 in a row?

Hip, Hip, Hooray, The Greeks Save the Day
By Rich - 6/29/2011
Stocks are headed higher at the open...

Dr. Suess Politicians and Your Money
By Rich - 6/28/2011
Could the Greek parliament put you on an austerity plan - it could happen soon...

Round and Round Your Turning Me
By Rich - 6/23/2011
Here we go again....

Does It Matter That Ben Is In A Box?
By Rich - 6/22/2011
A sign that stocks might....

It Continues to be all Greek to Me.
By Rich - 6/21/2011
Better, but still a long way to go

Making An Assumption
By Dave M - 6/21/2011
Stocks appear to be ready to continue their recent rebound as traders are making the assumption that the situation in Greece will come to a positive resolution in a timely fashion...

Now It Gets Interesting
By Dave M - 6/20/2011
With a critical vote in Greece, no economic news before Thursday, a Fed meeting on Tues/Wed, and the EU finance ministers delaying a decision on an emergency loan for Greece, now is when the market action gets interesting...

A French Love Affair Ends Losing Streak
By Rich - 6/17/2011
Sarkozy speaks and stocks react

Is The Tide Turning?
By Dave M - 6/17/2011
As the saying goes, a market that can't go down on bad news may be ready to turn. So, with traders ignoring the Philly Fed yesterday and some improvement on the Greece front this morning...

Reunited and if Feels So Bad?
By Rich - 6/16/2011
The markets could hit a major technical signpost today.

Will They Muck It Up?
By Dave M - 6/16/2011
I have been working under the assumption that the situation in Greece would eventually be resolved in a positive fashion (at least in the short-run). However, with the politicians getting involved...

Back To Data Dependent
By Dave M - 6/15/2011
Tuesday's bounce higher was sponsored by a handful of economic reports that did not fall in the disaster category. However, Wednesday's report on Empire Manufacturing is an eye opener…

Putting some Wind back into the Bull's Sales?
By Rich - 6/14/2011
Are stocks ready to rebound?

What Comes Next?
By Dave M - 6/14/2011
One of the keys to this game is to understand that you've got to think for yourself. So, when everyone, everywhere is absolutely certain about what is likely to come next, it often pays to...

From Popeye to Superman
By Rich - 6/13/2011
Socks are going to start in the plus column, is the correction dead?

Doomed To Repeat?
By Dave M - 6/13/2011
Although stocks are oversold and due for a relief rally, research shows that traders may have a very good reason for turning negative after the recent manufacturing data. History shows…

Did Anything Change?
By Dave M - 6/10/2011
After snapping a six-day losing streak, the key question that investors need to ask isn't about how much higher stocks will go in the near term. No, the key question is...

It's a Popeye Market
By Rich - 6/9/2011
Some spinach would sure help

How Much Is Enough?
By Dave M - 6/9/2011
With the S&P 500 now having given up -6.1% from the April 29th high, the question of the day is how much downside is enough to discount what economists are calling a temporary soft patch?

Bottom's UP?
By Rich - 6/8/2011
Another sell-off could signal it's time to buy?

No Hint, No Bounce?
By Dave M - 6/8/2011
Ben Bernanke provided a rather downbeat view of the U.S. Economy on Tuesday and failed to offer even a hint of more Fed stimulus to come. Does this mean stocks can't bounce here?

The Big Ben Bounce?
By Rich - 6/7/2011
Are stocks ready to rebound?

Are We Scaring Ourselves?
By Dave M - 6/7/2011
Although the recent economic data has been on the punk side, there is absolutely no indication that anything more than a soft patch has developed. Thus, the media and the stock market may be guilty of trying to put a scare into us…

Conventional Wisdom or just Dumb?
By Rich - 6/6/2011
Opinions, you know the rule

It's Only Temporary, Right?
By Dave M - 6/6/2011
If you find yourself wearing your rose-colored Revo's to work this morning, you likely believe that any difficulty the economy and the stock market may currently be encountering is only temporary…

Easily Distracted?
By Dave M - 6/3/2011
It is safe to say that after this morning's surprisingly weak jobs report that all eyes are back on the state of the U.S. economy. The question is if traders will be distracted anytime soon…

Predicting the Future with the Past
By Rich - 6/2/2011
you should see the other guy

And Then They Matter A Lot
By Dave M - 6/2/2011
It is always tough to figure out exactly when an issue, which has often been brewing for a while, finally matters to Wall Street. One of my favorite sayings on this subject is "Things don't matter until they do, and then…

A Break Out or Head Fake?
By Rich - 6/1/2011
Was yesterday's market move for real or a mirage?

Walk On By?
By Dave M - 6/1/2011
The current plan on Wall Street has been to keep looking straight ahead and walk on by any and all bad economic news. And why not? The "correlation trade" has been working well, so why make a change…

The Key Question
By Dave M - 5/31/2011
Given that the programs are keying off of the Euro and the dollar right now, the key question facing the markets involves the state of the European debt mess and in turn, the direction of the Euro…

Correlations and your Cash
By Rich - 5/27/2011
What the dollar says about your portfolio

Who Do You Believe?
By Dave M - 5/27/2011
The markets have provided traders with mixed messages recently as the stock market managed to climb in the face of a big dive in bond yields and some more crummy economic data…

Time For Some Conviction?
By Dave M - 5/26/2011
With stocks having moved sideways for the better part of the last three months (yes, it's been that long), we're of the mind that traders may need to develop some conviction for their stance at some point soon…

Ducks and Dollars
By Rich - 5/25/2011
Investors beware, storm clouds are gathering

Is There More To The Story?
By Dave M - 5/25/2011
The explanations in the popular press for Tuesday's decline in the stock market seemed reasonable. But as you dig into the action, it appears there may be more to the story…

50 Day Magnetism Calls The NASDAQ & S&P 500?
By Rich - 5/24/2011
A little rally before the BOOM?

Something To Look Forward To?
By Dave M - 5/24/2011
With the 'Sell in May and go away' season underway, the next earnings parade still a month and a half away, and the Fed's exit of QE2 just around the corner, traders may have little to look forward to at the present time…

Rut Ro Shaggy, Things Are About to get Scary
By Rich - 5/23/2011
Look out below - what could be next for stocks

Are the Winds Shifting?
By Dave M - 5/23/2011
One of the keys to the stock market game is to stay in tune with the current market environment at all times. Currently that means knowing whether or not the winds are shifting from tailwinds to headwinds…

Yea, But? Or...
By Dave M - 5/20/2011
Listening to the post-game analysis of the market is always interesting. Yesterday, it was fun to hear the talking heads struggle with the idea that three bad economic reports had led to higher stock prices. So, while we can continue to argue about the day, we could also…

Weak Link?
By Dave M - 5/19/2011
Something happened yesterday afternoon that made me do a double-take. Did my eyes deceive me? Had the link between the Euro/Dollar/Stock Market actually weakened?

Can The Bulls Come Out to Play?
By Rich - 5/18/2011
Can The Bulls Come Out to Play?

If a Tree Falls In the Woods...
By Dave M - 5/18/2011
My question this morning is akin to the age old dilemma relating to whether or not a tree falling in the woods actually makes any sound if no one is there to hear it. More specifically, if a breakdown on the charts occurs due to trading driven by algorithms…

50 Day Averages - Ready or not, Here We Come
By Rich - 5/17/2011
Find out where this downturn might come to an end - for now.

Other Weighty Issues?
By Dave M - 5/17/2011
To be sure, the Euro/Dollar/Stock trade was "on" again Monday. However, there may be some additional issues beginning to weigh on the minds of investors…

They Say Things Come in Threes
By Rich - 5/16/2011
the market will make a choice this week

The Best House In A Bad Neighborhood?
By Dave M - 5/16/2011
Until two weeks ago, the markets were fairly easy to understand. With Bernanke pledging to keep rates low for an extended period, traders knew exactly what to do and the risk trade was "on"…

Run It Again!
By Dave M - 5/13/2011
As a young quarterback in high school, one of the first rules of play calling I was taught was to run the same play over and over again until the defense proved they could stop it. In short, this appears to be what traders are doing right now…

Bull or Bear or Don't Care?
By Rich - 5/12/2011
Back and forth we go, bull or bear?

Once More For Emphasis
By Dave M - 5/12/2011
If you are at all mystified by the action in the stock and commodity markets of late, you may not be paying enough attention to your Daily State of the Markets reports. The bottom line here is simple…

The Pause Before the Pop?
By Rich - 5/11/2011
Why do today what you can do tomorrow?

Good But Not Great
By Dave M - 5/11/2011
The stock market action of late has been easy to like. Tuesday the indices surged higher without any real catalyst and the bulls produced decent internals. In short, this is called…

Making It Difficult
By Dave M - 5/10/2011
I often get a kick out of the explanations offered up by the so-called experts on days like Monday. Instead of simply telling it like it is, some folks insist on making it difficult…

Were Does The Market Go From Here?
By Rich - 5/9/2011
What does our crystal ball tells us about stocks?

A Lack of Conviction?
By Dave M - 5/9/2011
There is little doubt that the bulls remain largely in charge of the game these days. However, given the duration of the current bull cycle, last week's action suggests that the bulls may be suffering from a lack of conviction…

Are Bulls Back On The Loose After Today's Employment Report?
By Rich - 5/6/2011
Are the buyers back, or have they gone on spring break after today's jobs report?

It's About Jobs (And the Buck!)
By Dave M - 5/6/2011
While today's market is likely to be all about the Jobs report (which wasn't half bad!), it is important to recognize that the game right now is really about the buck and the dollar-carry trade…

The New M.O. - Sell the Hype and Buy the News?
By Rich - 5/5/2011
Will tomorrow's Employment Report sink stocks some more?

Bulls Might Be in the Unemployment Line Next
By Rich - 5/5/2011
What does a bad jobs report mean for stocks

Here We Go Again?
By Dave M - 5/5/2011
Up until Wednesday's ISM Non-Manufacturing report, the bulls have been able to counter each and every advance by their opponents with the idea that the economy is improving at a solid pace…

It Might Be Time
By Dave M - 5/4/2011
Although the venerable DJIA has been hanging tough of late, it is important to recognize that things have gotten a little ugly under the surface as the market-leading small- and mid-caps have taken a beating this week…

What You Should Be Looking For Today
By Rich - 5/4/2011
Where the bulls might regroup.

Look Out Below
By Jeff - 5/3/2011
Silver tarishes quickly

Definitely Not Surprising
By Dave M - 5/3/2011
With stocks having enjoyed an impressive jaunt higher over the past eight days I'm not sure we should be too terribly surprised to see traders take a break from the buy button...

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
By Rich - 5/2/2011
where are stocks headed today?

Have You Heard?
By Dave M - 5/2/2011
While perhaps not on the same magnitude as word that either of the Kennedy's or MLK had been shot or that man had set foot on the moon, the news that Osama bin Laden had been killed...

The Free Pass
By Dave M - 4/29/2011
With Ben Bernanke reassuring traders that the "free pass" for the "risk trade" is going to continue for "an extended period" still, the thinking for the big boys is simple...

A Look at Fed Policy, Government Debt...
By Jeff - 4/28/2011
We have now travelled past the point of no return with regards to deficit spending. If anyone believes that the Federal Reserve will come to a screeching halt in June with QE2...

Pressing The Pause Button
By Rich - 4/28/2011
what is up with the market today?

Meet The Press
By Dave M - 4/28/2011
Although there was other news, which was largely positive, Wednesday's stock market was all about the Federal Reserve as Ben Bernanke played ‘Meet the Press’. Apparently traders like what they heard…

Will Big Ben Kill The Triple Play?
By Rich - 4/27/2011
The stock ride could get wild this afternoon

All Eyes On Bernanke
By Dave M - 4/27/2011
While all eyes were on the chart of the S&P 500 yesterday, it is a safe bet that traders and investors will be glued to their T.V.'s, phones, tablets, etc today when Ben Bernanke meets the press...

The Indexes Could Hit The Trifecta Today
By Rich - 4/26/2011
what very bullish event could happen today?

All About the Dollar (And Silver, and...)
By Dave M - 4/26/2011
At first glance, the markets appeared to do a whole lot of nothin' on Monday as traders appeared content to wait on Mr. Bernanke's first-ever press conference following Wednesday's FOMC meeting. But upon further review…

The Dollar and My Indicators Say Buy
By Rich - 4/25/2011
see what the dollar and my indicators say stocks are going to do next

Can The Bulls Break On Through?
By Dave M - 4/25/2011
With the major indices starting the week either at or very near new highs for the current bull market cycle, the key question is...

The Green Wave Rolls On
By Dave M - 4/21/2011
It's not a problem until it's a problem

It's Baaaack!
By Dave M - 4/21/2011
Stocks have gotten a big boost this week from earnings with the tech names doing most of the heavy lifting. However, what isn't getting a lot of press is the fact that the “risk trade” is back…

Coming To Grips?
By Dave M - 4/20/2011
While all eyes are on the earnings from some tech heavyweights today, it is worth noting that the S&P downgrade may have actually produced some positives for the stock market...

The Fed Drops Hints Are Stocks Next?
By Rich - 4/19/2011
See what important news got lost in yesterday's S&P downgrade...

Game Changers?
By Dave M - 4/19/2011
At first blush, the news that Standard & Poor's had cut its rating outlook on U.S. debt from "stable" to "negative" might have been viewed as a game changer.

My Stock Market Timing Models Turn Red
By Rich - 4/18/2011
Are your hands safely in the cart and your seatbelt tightly fastened?

Has Anything Changed?
By Dave M - 4/18/2011
Despite a plethora of data inputs late in the week and the earnings parade starting to roll, not much has really changed in the market as investors fret about...

About the "Div Trader"
By Jeff - 4/16/2011
Here's a brief introduction to the strategy behind my Dividend Trader service...

As the World Churns
By Rich - 4/15/2011
Stocks have been churning sideways for two weeks now...

Another Soft Patch?
By Dave M - 4/15/2011
The current worry in the market is that another "soft patch" may be starting in the economy. Although there are few signs at the moment to warrant such concerns, we will keep our eyes and ears open going forward...

The Wait Is Almost Over
By Dave M - 4/14/2011
Although the action has been less than inspiring for the past two weeks, it is important to keep in mind that, so far at least, the bears haven't been able to get anything meaningful going to the downside...

Is a Turnaround At Hand?
By Rich - 4/13/2011
Looks like today could be the oppositive of yesterday. Could a turnaround be at hand?

Are They Real?
By Dave M - 4/13/2011
With the market experiencing its first four-day decline of the year, the key question is if the fears that appear to be driving the pullback are real...

Window Dressing On The Way?
By Dave M - 3/30/2011
While the bears will argue that stocks ought to be stuck in a trading range until the start of the upcoming earnings season, the bulls look to have other ideas as the first quarter comes to a close

Test Rich Entry
By Rich - 3/22/2011
This is another teaser.

Test Jeff Entry
By Jeff - 3/22/2011
This is a teaser for Jeff.

Looks Like A Trading Range To Us
By Dave M - 3/22/2011
The tape action, which last week provided foreshadowing of good things to come, is now getting a little ragged. This tells us that we are likely going to be